Every once in a while a week emerges that doesn’t cause all that much chaos to the playoff projection.
Week 6’s slate of games seemed to provide that.
There were 12 teams that entered the projection that weren’t in the field a week ago, but many of those were direct swap outs where a team replaced another in the same classification.
There were also numerous games between the teams in the middle of the conference races around the state where it appears that the outcome will indicate which team is likely to earn a playoff slot at 5-4 and who won’t and drop to 4-5.
Many of those games went the way as expected, although a few didn’t and resulted in direct swaps that didn’t affect the field all that much.
There were a few leagues, however, that are getting muddier by the week. In fact, one of them is creating a potential situation that’s definitely worth monitoring.
The Black Diamond Conference is a 10-team locked conference, meaning schools only play conference games and have no non-conference games.
Almost every circumstance within a locked conference a pecking order is developed and it usually means there are playoff qualifiers with 9, 8, 7, 6 and 5 wins and non-playoff qualifiers at 4, 3, 2, 1 and 0 wins.
But every once in a while there’s a blip in that pattern and it leads to one of two things: A conference where only four bids are created or in very rare sequences a conference where six bids are created.
The Black Diamond looks like one of those leagues where six bids might be created. How that happens is one of the higher level winning levels isn’t reached and instead that extra win is distributed to the middle of the pack, leading the league to produce maybe a nine and eight win team, a six win team and three five win teams where parity takes over a conference.
Other tough conference reads come courtesy of the South Suburban Blue where it currently appears that as many as six or as few as three have paths to the playoffs with a wide variance to what might happen over the last three weeks.
And the Chicago Public League seems quirkier than ever. Just two playoff eligible CPL teams are still undefeated (Goode and Payton) which drastically reduces the chances that CPL teams will reside on very high seed lines when the brackets are released.
The bubbles have also remained fairly consistent although Glenwood has bounced back in to the Class 6A draw and has been jostling between the Class 5A and Class 6A draws for the past few weeks.
One interesting bubble watch has emerged between Class 3A and Class 4A where Benton and South Shore have the same enrollment and are now sitting right on the bubble between the two classes. If that situation remains the same on pairings day and both qualify a coin flip will be held to determine which team goes into which class. It isn’t unprecedented for this to happen, but it hasn’t been actualized in at least a decade.
Here is the Week 6 playoff projection for all eight classes:
Class 1A
Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Arthur, Cumberland, Deer Creek Mackinaw, Athens, Tuscola.
Class 2A
Teams on the bubble between 1A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Arthur, Cumberland, Deer Creek Mackinaw, Athens, Tuscola.
Teams on the bubble between 2A/1A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Newman Central Catholic, Chicago Richards, Chicago Marshall, Sullivan, Chester.
Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Pana, DuQuoin, Erie.
Class 3A
Teams on the bubble between 2A/3A (from closest to bubble to farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Pana, DuQuoin, Erie.
Teams on the bubble between 3A/2A (from closest to bubble to farthest): West Frankfort, Stillman Valley, Aurora Central Catholic, Hillsboro, Oregon.
Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Benton, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner, Manteno, IC Catholic.
Class 4A
Teams on the bubble between 3A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Benton, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner, Manteno, IC Catholic.
Teams on the bubble between 4A/3A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): South Shore, Columbia, Macomb, Alton Marquette, Breese Central.
Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Woodstock, Sterling, Noble/UIC, Woodstock North, Evergreen Park.
Class 5A
Teams on the bubble between 4A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Woodstock, Sterling, Noble/UIC, Woodstock North, Evergreen Park.
Teams on the bubble between 5A/4A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Decatur MacArthur, Normal University, Corliss, Mahomet-Seymour, Noble/Bulls.
Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Wauconda, Champaign Centennial, Washington, Oak Forest, Cary-Grove.
Class 6A
Teams on the bubble between 5A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Wauconda, Champaign Centennial, Washington, Oak Forest, Cary-Grove.
Teams on the bubble between 6A/5A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Dunlap, Glenwood, Crete-Monee, Normal West, Burlington Central.
Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): East Moline United, Harlem, Wheaton Warrenville South, Bradley-Bourbonnais, Maine West.
Class 7A
Teams on the bubble between 6A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): East Moline United, Harlem, Wheaton Warrenville South, Bradley-Bourbonnais, Maine West.
Teams on the bubble between 7A/6A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Carmel, Addison Trail, St. Charles North, Reavis, Willowbrook, Kenwood.
Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Elgin. Belleville East, Edwardsville, Schaumburg, Glenbard West.
Class 8A
Teams on the bubble between 7A/8A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Elgin. Belleville East, Edwardsville, Schaumburg, Glenbard West.
Teams on the bubble between 8A/7A (from closest to the bubble to farthest): Hinsdale Central, Maine South, Marist, Palatine, Downers Grove South.