The IHSA football playoffs start later this week and the anticipation leading up to announcement of the pairings can be just as exciting. A few years ago, excessive hits on the IHSA website the Saturday night of the pairings caused it to crash.

Unlike other IHSA sports with prearranged seedings, classification and postseason schedules, football does not reveal this information until the regular season is over. The buildup is felt statewide.

To compound this, the smallest thing can completely change outcomes. Just ask Forreston and Newman Central Catholic, whose fortunes were changed dramatically by a simple coin flip.

That is a good place to start analyzing the brackets for local qualifiers.

Since both teams (7-2) were tied as No. 7 seed in Class 1A when it came to playoff points based upon opponents’ wins (41) and defeated opponents’ wins (25), a coin flip was the only way to break the tie. The only time this can happen is if two teams are in the same classification, and it is rare when it does.

Since Newman won the virtual toss, it stayed at No. 7 and Forreston dropped to No. 8. That slotted the Comets away from the side of the bracket that powerhouse Lena-Winslow is in.

Meanwhile, should Forreston beat Ottawa Marquette on Friday, the Cardinals will see Le-Win in the second round. Considering that Forreston was beaten by Le-Win 36-8 a few days ago, losing that coin flip was a real downer.

Last year, Forreston came into the playoffs with four losses, but advanced to the semifinals before losing to Le-Win. The positive for Forreston is that it is 3-0 in the playoffs against Marquette, the Cardinals’ first-round opponent.

Newman, which has had plenty of success in 2A, has a much easier road. To reach the third round, the Comets need only to get by teams from a relatively weak Lincoln Trail-Prairieland conference.

It does get tougher with suburban wildcards Aurora Christian and Chicago Hope as possible quarterfinal opponents. AC had been a 3A power under Don Beebe, but has regressed in past decade. Hope, which has plenty of athleticism, has never been able to match up physically with northwest Illinois teams.

Thus, a Newman vs Le-Win semifinal is quite possible.

Sterling sneaks in

The most pleasant surprise of the area was Sterling making it into Class 5A with a 4-5 record. Since 8-man football has taken 30 schools out of the playoff pool and some Chicago Public League teams opted out, a small handful of five-loss teams have been filling the 256-team field.

This is well deserved for Sterling, as besides a rugged Western Big-6 slate, the Warriors’ three nonconference foes were 8-1, 7-2 and 7-2.

Last year, Nazareth came into the 5A postseason with four losses and won the state title, so it is not always about who has the best record. The defending state champion Roadrunners got into 5A this year with a 4-5 record and have one of the most anticipated first-round games against 9-0 Prairie Ridge.

The No. 16 seed Golden Warriors were gifted with a Chicago Public League opponent (Payton) in the first round. The Public League has been woeful in the playoffs and even though it has a famous football namesake, undefeated Payton (1-11 in 11 appearances) will be an underdog to Sterling.

After that, things get considerably tougher with the winner facing either Wheaton St. Francis or Rochelle. Wheaton (7-2) has one of the top quarterbacks in the state, plays one of the toughest schedules in 5A and already has beaten Sterling. Rochelle (7-2), which defeated highly regarded Richmond-Burton to win its first conference title since its glory days of the NCIC, lost to St. Francis in last year’s playoffs and got one of the worst draws of anyone in the state.

Dixon’s road ahead

After an overtime loss to Rochelle in the first round of 4A last year, Dixon (8-1) got a much easier road this time with Plano (5-4). Next up would probably be 6-3 St. Laurence, another of the CCL/ESCC schools that saw much tougher competition than Dixon did in a weaker than usual BNC.

The teams to beat in the 4A north bracket are a pair of newcomers in Rockford Boylan, which has seen a decline in enrollment, and IC Catholic, which won 3A last year and was bumped up a class. That showdown would come quickly, in the second round.

No. 12 seed Oregon (5-4) is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and got a favorable draw in 3A. They make a short drive to No. 5 Durand=Pecatonica (7-2) in an intriguing matchup of the Big Northern vs Northwest Upstate Illini, with this game considered a toss up.

The last time Oregon played at Pecatonica was when both were in the Mid-Northern conference (1972-91), along with Mt. Morris, which is now part of the Oregon district.

Stillman Valley (5-4), a team Oregon thumped in its best performance of the year, would likely be the second round opponent and a home game for the Hawks, should Oregon beat Du-Pec. However, SV is more playoff-tested than Oregon and will provide a stiffer challenge than it did in a 28-7 loss in week 6.

The overwhelming favorite in 3A is Byron, though Montini could prove to be a worthy challenger in the semis.

Oddly, there is not a single school from all of northern Illinois in the 2A playoffs.

Two schools separated by 10 miles and having nearly the same enrollment will be meeting for first time since one of them departed the Three Rivers conference in 2021. That would be No. 12 seed Fulton versus No. 5 Morrison in 1A. Though both teams have been playing against each other since 1901, Morrison holds a 28-15 edge in official “Wooden Shoe” games since 1977.

Neither team can complain about where it landed in the pairings and since beating 3A power Princeton, the Mustangs are considered a potential threat to Le-Win in the quarterfinals. But, they are also ripe to the upset-mined Steamers in what promises to be a huge crowd at Morrison. Both programs have 2A state titles to their name.

Though 8-man football is not part of the IHSA football playoffs, a similar formula to determine the final 16 qualifiers is used. However, rather than break up the brackets into north and south like the IHSA does with 1A through 6A, 8-man goes statewide.

Amboy (9-0), which took second in the state last year and returned nearly its entire starting lineup, is the favorite to win it all, though the Clippers are No. 2 seed to Champaign St. Thomas More.

A potential second-round rematch with local interest is No. 3 Milledgeville (8-1) vs. No. 6 Polo (7-2). In the regular season, the Missiles jumped on Polo early in a romp and will again be favored.

The seed that doesn’t make sense is a very good Cambridge team (7-2) at No. 9. It came within 48-44 of Amboy and could eliminate St. Thomas More in the second round.

Perhaps the most likely scenario in 8-man is an Amboy-Cambridge final at Monmouth College on November 17. The IHSA championships return to Hancock Stadium in Normal over Thanksgiving weekend, its original home from 1974-1998.