As drought persists, corn growers know timing is everything

Keith Poole, a corn grower and hog farmer, stands next to corn that is beginning to tassel on Thursday, July 8, 2021, on his farm in rural Polo. Poole says this is a crucial time for the maturation of the crop. Ogle County is in drought conditions, although Poole said his farm received about half an inch of rain the day before.

A rain shower passed through western Ogle County on Wednesday. Keith Poole took note of the precipitation. It was three-tenths of an inch.

Not enough. Not close to it.

“It’s been too spotty for way too long,” he said.

Another two-tenths fell in that evening. And a neighbor to the north got one-half inch.

Either way, it’s far from what is needed to ensure an average yield from the crop of feed corn on the 1,200 acre-farm west of Polo that Poole, 52, operates with his father, David, 74.

What’s called for? A half inch of rain for every week in July might make the difference, he said. And that doesn’t even account for soybeans, whose pods develop in August.

“Corn and beans have probably been hurt already,” he said. “What we get this month will be the big factor.”

The entire Sauk Valley is experiencing drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor maintained by the University of Nebraska at Lincoln and updated every Thursday. Some areas have already been identified by the federal government as deserving of disaster assistance in the form of emergency loans.

For most of Ogle and Carroll counties, the drought is categorized as moderate. That means crops, pastures and trees will show stress. Local wildlife is expected to start eating crops.

For the northern sections of Whiteside and Lee, it’s less severe, what the rating system calls abnormally dry.

Poole has been driving around. He’s found that conditions vary. “Every farm is different,” he said, noting the disparity. “You don’t have to drive very far to find people that got rain and those that didn’t.”

Trent Ford is the state climatologist based in Champaign and he’s been tracking the situation.

“The models are painting a picture of a large ridge over the Midwest,” Ford said, emphasizing that it is difficult to predict which way things will swing. But once summer weather settles into a pattern, it tends to stick. “It’s going to dictate who gets rain and cooler weather and who doesn’t. Northwestern Illinois is right on that boundary.”

The outlook for the month depends a great deal on the larger picture: how the drought in the upper Midwest, which is centered on the Red River, develops against the potential for moisture from clouds sweeping up from the Gulf of Mexico.

“Spotty showers; that is good to see,” Ford said. “That means there is gulf moisture moving into the area. If we can keep those thunderstorms firing, we can keep the area from worsening.”

At the same time, Ford said, while spotty showers can prevent drought from intensifying in the overall sense, some people are going to be missed.

“That’s a tough communication line,” Ford added. “When you talk to these folks, they want to know how bad the drought is going to be. We tend to ask ourselves: How widespread is it? How many people does it affect? But even if it affects one person, it affects them harshly.”

Ford said the area has not been in drought for long. That means soil moisture most likely hasn’t been depleted, though sandy soils are more vulnerable.

He noted in his weekly report that June was the fifth driest on record for Stockton in Jo Davies County back to 1944, and the driest since 2012.

Poole remembers 2012, but, in truth, his thoughts go back to 1988. He’s been consulting the records he and his father keep in a notebook from that year. “Corn was rolled up really bad,” he said. “It didn’t look like it would amount to anything.”

Things are not yet that dire.

“Our crop looks fairly good right now,” Poole said. “Considering the lack of rain this year, I’m surprised it doesn’t look worse.”

Ron Kern is with the Ogle County Farm Bureau. He’s noticed the same thing. What happens in the next four weeks will make the difference between an average crop and a poor crop. “Depends if the rains we get are timely,” he said, “such as when the corn is tasseling.”

What’s a poor crop look like? Poole said in 1988 corn yields were down to 80 to 90 bushels and an acre. For comparison, Ogle County yields were 191 bushels per acre in 2020, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

Dry fields also reduce the effectiveness of herbrides, insecticides and fungicides, Poole said.

The drought’s effect on livestock is most keenly felt with dormant pastures. Some ranchers are supplementing with hay, which Poole said is unusual during the summer. Come winter, hay could be in short supply.

His own hogs are in climate controlled barns. Heat is a factor, so sprinklers are used to keep hogs cool. Really, though, Poole is looking down the road. Smaller yields on feed corn mean that as grain prices rise, the cost to feed hogs also rises.

In Lee County, “spottiness” is also the byword,” said Kyle Sheaffer, 42, who farms north of Dixon and is a member of the Lee Farm Bureau Board.

He said his farm got 2.3 inches for June. Before Father’s Day, the corn “looked really bad.”

“Luckily, we got enough rain that it came out of it,” he said.

Generally speaking, Shaeffer said the ground south of the Rock River is sandier and flatter. That allows more more growers to make use of irrigation equipment for specialty crops, such as sweet corn, seed corn and peas. Irrigation allows those growers to cope with the drought conditions.

Storms with high winds, such as those that moved through the area on Friday, are also a concern, Schaeffer said. The rain is welcome, but 70 mph winds can snap corn stalks or lay them flat.

Ford, the climatologist, echoed that concern. Storms have isolated impact, but “that is always a threat,” he said, adding: “It’s impossible to predict where those strong storms are going to hit.”

The U.S. secretary of agriculture on July 1 made a disaster declaration for drought in six Illinois counties. Another seven contiguous counties were also eligible, a list that included Ogle and Lee. The designation enables growers to apply for Farm Service Agency loans that provide access to capital to help producers start or expand their farming operation, purchase equipment and storage structures, or meet cash flow needs. However, the Illinois Farm Service Agency recommends that producers wait until after the harvest before requesting assistance. The deadline is not until Feb. 22, 2022.

The U.S. Small Business Administration followed suit, and announced that low-interest disaster loans were being made available to small agricultural co-ops.

Troy Taylor

Troy E. Taylor

Was named editor for Saukvalley.com and the Gazette and Telegraph in 2021. An Illinois native, he has been a reporter or editor in daily newspapers since 1989.