At the risk of lifting the veil a bit, today I encourage readers to do what smart government analysts have long attempted: contextualize political efforts through arithmetic.

In other words: do the math.

When lawmakers suspended the statewide 1% grocery tax in fiscal 2022, they budgeted $400 million to cover payments to local governments (the sole beneficiary of that tax). When the financial dust settled, the cost was just $252 million. Figuring a population of 12.5 million, it came to $20.16 per person, almost 39 cents per week.

Also in 2022, lawmakers paused a scheduled increase in the state portion of fuel taxes. My family pumped 289.31 gallons in Illinois from July through December that year, generating $178.50 in per-gallon taxes. Had the state increase taken effect, it would’ve cost me an extra $6.08 – one dollar a month.

Neither figure accounts for the effect on my total sales tax contribution. In Illinois, we slap sales taxes on top of the taxed cost of fuel, a mechanism at the center of House Bill 5738, a Republican effort to suspend that specific sales tax, again from July through December, which state Rep. Ryan Spain, R-Peoria, has said could knock off 20 cents per gallon without affecting the regular motor fuel tax.

We have one car with a 10-gallon tank and another with a 20-gallon tank. At 20 cents per gallon, we could save $2 and $4 per fill. That’s a significant sum, and kudos to Spain and others for trying to be clear about specific funding mechanisms, notoriously murky when it comes to gas.

The bill is unlikely to go anywhere in the final weeks of the spring session, as it would undermine the questionable Chicago area public transportation reform effort settled during the fall veto session, but it’s another reminder of the importance of breaking headline numbers into their real-world implications. Even if the math isn’t perfect, it helps to understand promises and projections versus the likely reality.

For another perfect, timely example of this process, I commend Rich Miller’s weekly Capitol Fax column in which he shows how proposed megaproject legislation could turn “a $20 million special payment” into property tax relief of a whopping $1.29 per homeowner (tinyurl.com/CFmegaproject).

This strategy works the other direction, such as when a village board wants to raise tens of millions for a police station or library and says the average homeowner might pay $25 per month. Don’t focus on the big number, think in terms of pennies per day!

Value is personal and subjective, so always decide for yourself if spending or savings are “worth” what politicians pledge. Reaching those conclusions is easier and safer when armed with useful context – work we often must do ourselves.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.