New COVID-19 cases in McHenry County rise after falling for a nearly a week straight

This illustration, created at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reveals ultrastructural morphology exhibited by coronaviruses

After falling steadily for about a week, the number of new COVID-19 cases in McHenry County rose, reversing a trend in the county’s incidence rate, one of the metrics used to determine how much transmission is occurring in the community.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers an incidence rate – measured as the total number of new cases over seven days per 100,000 residents – to mark a “high” degree transmission of COVID-19.

The number of new cases over the previous seven days hit 111.47 per 100,000 residents Saturday, the most recent day for which data is available, according to the McHenry County health department’s school metrics dashboard Thursday. That was down from more than 145 cases reported Oct. 4 but higher than the day before.

For spread to meet the less severe category “substantial,” the incidence rate would need to fall below 100 new cases over seven days per 100,000 residents and remain there for a week, according to the county’s health department.

Both the CDC and McHenry County health department use the incidence rate and positivity rate to categorize COVID-19 transmission. When the two metrics do not fall within the same transmission risk category, the higher one is chosen, according to the county health department.

McHenry County’s COVID-19 test positivity rate remained at 3.1% on Monday, according to the McHenry County health department. The county has been within the low transmission range of zero percent to 4.9% for more than a month.

Region 9, which is made up of Lake and McHenry counties, remained at 2.3% on Monday, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.

Intensive care unit availability across McHenry and Lake counties also remained at 21% as of Wednesday, the IDPH reported.

Twice this summer, the ICU care availability in the two-county region fell below 20%, a threshold previously used by the state during the COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger point for implementing more strict health mitigations on regions, something that hadn’t occurred during either last year’s fall peak of coronavirus cases or the more recent spring surge.

The number of people hospitalized in both counties fell to 84 Wednesday. The region saw the number of patients hospitalized decrease or remain stable each of the past 10 days.

In McHenry County alone, 5.5% of medical and surgical beds and 24.7% of intensive care unit beds were available, according to the McHenry County health department. Hospitalizations have decreased or remained stable eight out of the past 10 days in McHenry County.

Statewide, the number of hospitalizations tied to COVID-19 dropped Wednesday to 1,309, a decrease from the day before, IDPH reported. Of those hospitalized on Wednesday, 330 patients were in the ICU and 155 were on ventilators.

Wednesday saw 713 doses of vaccine administered to McHenry County residents, bringing the total number of doses administered in McHenry County to 362,322, the IDPH reported.

A total of 176,387 county residents, or an estimated 57.16% of McHenry County’s population, now are fully vaccinated, meaning they’ve received all doses recommended for the vaccine they were given.

Statewide, 15,166,996 vaccines have been administered, according to state data.

Across Illinois, 81% of those age 12 and older have received at least one dose of a vaccine against COVID-19, and 63.4% are fully vaccinated, the IDPH reported Thursday. Those rates are 82.5% and 65% for people 18 and older and 96.8% and 78.9% for those 65 and older.

The IDPH reported 2,146 new confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 Thursday. Another 36 deaths also were logged Thursday, bringing the totals to 1,677,939 cases, 25,563 confirmed deaths and 2,819 probable deaths.

The McHenry County Department of Health reported 72 new cases and eight deaths Thursday, bringing the total number of cases in the county to 34,803, including 328 deaths and 32 deaths that likely were caused by COVID-19 but could not be confirmed.

However, the health department is reviewing historical death data, according to its website, meaning that these deaths being reported are ones that occurred over the last few months. They are not new COVID-19 deaths, the website said.

Neighboring Lake County’s health department reported a total of 72,191 cases and 1,090 deaths as of Thursday, and to the south, Kane County’s health department reported a total of 68,346 cases and 872 deaths as of Thursday.

Among McHenry County ZIP codes, Crystal Lake (60014) has the highest number of COVID-19 cases with a total of 5,346 confirmed cases, according to county data. Woodstock (60098) followed with 3,975 cases.

The McHenry County health department reports ZIP code data only for parts within McHenry County, a department spokeswoman said. Any discrepancies between county and IDPH numbers likely are because of the data’s provisional nature and because each health department finalizes its data at different times, she said.

The following is the rest of the local breakdown of cases by ZIP code: McHenry (60050) 3,751; Lake in the Hills (60156) 3,207; Huntley (60142) 2,624; Algonquin (60102) 2,515; Johnsburg and McHenry (60051) 2,396; Cary (60013) 2,387; Harvard (60033) 1,800; Marengo (60152) 1,416; Crystal Lake, Bull Valley and Prairie Grove (60012) 1,186; Wonder Lake (60097) 1,152; Spring Grove (60081) 897; Island Lake (60042) 496; Fox River Grove (60021) 453; Richmond (60071) 394; Hebron (60034) 214; Barrington (60010) 185; Union (60180) 159; and Ringwood and Wonder Lake (60072) 90.