Not a white Christmas, try a wet Christmas for northern Illinois

“It’s beginning to look a lot like ... "

Those who wish for a white Christmas are going to have to watch the 1954 classic movie with Bing Crosby and Danny Kaye, or listen to their favorite version of the iconic Irving Berlin song, because the meteorological version of a white Christmas doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

In fact, the National Weather Service in Chicago is predicting it is more likely that Christmas 2023 will be one of the 10 warmest on record, with the likelihood of rain.

A Christmas is considered white if there’s at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, according to the National Weather Service. It doesn’t matter if snow is falling or not.

Last year was a white Christmas for northern Illinois. A Dec. 23 snowfall brought 1 to 3 inches throughout the region, leaving a white blanket for Christmas morning.

Aside from some spots in Kane County in 2020, the latest white Christmas before last year was in 2017, when all of northern Illinois again was blanketed in snow.

In 2016, most communities north of Interstate 88 had a white Christmas, meaning there’s been about three white Christmas events in the past 10 years.

This Christmas, the forecast calls for a high of 56 degrees Christmas Eve and a high of 52 degrees Christmas Day, with periods of rain and precipitation 90% likely. Lows are expected to stay in the 40s.

Warmer temperatures are no surprise. Scientists are predicting a milder and drier than normal winter this year because of the El Nino current in the Pacific Ocean.

The Christmas Day record high in Crystal Lake is 58 degrees, set in 2019; in Ottawa, it is 61 degrees in 1982; in Sterling, it is 59 degrees in 1982; in DeKalb, it is 60 degrees in 1982; and in Joliet, it is 61 degrees in 2019, according to AccuWeather.

This holiday is shaping up to be similar to 2021, when the continental U.S. had its third-lowest snow cover in the past 10 years, with 26.6% of the contiguous U.S. having a white Christmas.

Last year, 53% of the continental U.S. had a white Christmas, making it the highest percentage since 2009. On average, about 38% of the lower 48 states have snow on the ground for Christmas.

The odds are about 40% to 50% for a white Christmas in the northern third of Illinois, 20% to 40% in central Illinois and 0% to 20% in southern Illinois, according to the Illinois State Climatologist.

The lack of snow is welcome to the more than 115 million Americans who are expected to travel more than 50 miles this holiday season, according to AAA.

For snow seekers or those traveling out of state this holiday, there is a chance of a white Christmas in parts of western Nebraska, western and central South Dakota, North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, according to Weather Underground.

Most areas in the East won’t see a white Christmas this year, but higher elevations in northern New England and near the eastern Great Lakes may have leftover snow on the ground Christmas morning.

The Christmas Day with the most snow on the ground across Illinois was in 1951, when Aurora reported 31 inches of snow on the ground that morning, according to the Illinois State Climatologist.