Soucie: Week 8 playoff projection

The wildcard element of the projection operation always comes in the run-up to Week 9 courtesy of the Chicago Public League.

The CPL doesn’t release its Week 9 schedule for any of its playoff-eligible teams until after the conclusion of Week 8, making any attempt to figure out what the CPL will do a futile exercise in arbitrary guesswork. The CPL has never publicly announced how it formulates the CPL playoff structure and trying to figure it out after the fact doesn’t reveal many answers.

Playoff-eligible CPL schools can go one of two ways in Week 9. They can be invited to the 16-team CPL playoff bracket that culminates with one of its entrants heading to the Prep Bowl or the remaining teams are paired off, seemingly at random, from the remaining pool of teams not in the 16-team bracket.

This process had a 2-6 team qualify for the 16-team bracket and left a few five- and six-win teams outside of it. It caused even more chaos for the six teams that entered the week with 4-4 records and needing a win to earn a spot in the IHSA playoff field. It would stand to reason that those teams would probably draw teams with a similar record, but only one of the six received an opponent with a better record and none of the 4-4 teams are slated to play each other.

And then there’s Von Steuben, which enters the week with a 4-4 mark and is slated to play Urban Prep-Bronzeville, which comes in at 3-5. A win likely cements a playoff spot for Von Steuben, but oddly enough a win also might earn UP-Bronzeville a slot because it has one of the highest playoff point totals in the state, partly due to a nonconference schedule that included Richmond-Burton and Aurora Christian.

This is essentially a playoff game to qualify for the playoff games. Adding another layer of intrigue, UP-Bronzeville is a 2A team while Von Steuben is a 6A team. If the projection is wrong, Von Steuben would force its way into the field, knocking multiple teams riding the bubble down in classification into a lower class. There are heavy hitters on each of these bubbles right now.

Also, we won’t get any resolution on this one early either. That game is scheduled for 1 p.m. Saturday, the absolute last time you are allowed to kick off games on the final Saturday.

But what does this all mean for the entire field? The additional CPS qualifiers means less 4-5 teams are likely to earn positions in the field. That projection bumped down from 14 potential teams to just six and could fall even farther. It has a remote chance of disappearing all together if enough teams currently at 4-4 rise up and beat teams with better records in Week 9.

The previous teams projected to make the field at 4-5 almost exclusively came in larger classifications and those teams were replaced largely by small schools that punched their way into the field with upset wins. Schools such as Monmouth United, Hoopeston and the aforementioned Urban-Prep Bronzeville are projected in without putting anyone else’s bid in jeopardy in the process. As such, their slots need to be created in the field, pushing schools, especially in the middle classifications, up into larger classifications than previously expected.

Rochester is the most notable of these moves as the Rockets now find themselves in spot 130, two spots deep into the Class 5A draw. A week ago, Rochester was in spot 125.

Here’s a look at all eight classes with the final one. projected to make up the 256-team playoff field. Maps are provided for Class 1A through 6A to see where the north/south dividing line could break. Class 7A and Class 8A are not divided into geographic groups.

Class 8A

New Teams in Class 8A Field

Class 7A

New Teams in Class 7A Field

Class 6A

New Teams in Class 6A Field

Class 6A North/South Map

Class 5A

New Teams in Class 5A Field

Class 5A North/South Map

Class 4A

New Teams in Class 4A Field

Class 4A North/South Map

Class 3A

New Teams in Class 3A Field

Class 3A North/South Map

Class 2A

New Teams in Class 2A Field

Class 2A North/South Map

Class 1A

New Teams in Class 1A Field

Class 1A North/South Map