Sunday’s Chicago Bears loss to the Baltimore Ravens felt like a regression to the mean.
The Bears had found ways to win four straight games before Sunday despite not putting together perfect performances. Some of the issues that didn’t stop Chicago from losing before got in the way this time around.
None was more evident than the offensive inconsistency. The Bears only scored one touchdown despite putting up more total yards (372) than the Ravens (355). A deeper look into the numbers offers some insight into what has stopped the offense from reaching its full potential.
Here’s a look at why things didn’t work offensively Sunday.
Caleb Williams’ midgame dips
The Bears’ offensive production cooled off midway through the game Sunday after two scoring drives in the first quarter. Baltimore held Chicago scoreless in the second and third quarters, and the Bears put up 97 of their 372 total yards in the two middle quarters.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams’ numbers also took a dip after he effectively moved the ball down the field early. Williams completed eight of his 10 pass attempts in the second and third, but threw for 55 yards. He finished the game with a 65.8% completion rate and 285 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception.
Those numbers mirror what Williams has done seven games into his time with head coach and play-caller Ben Johnson this season. According to Pro Football Reference, the second quarter is when Williams has his lowest completion rate (55.9%), while he’s thrown for the fewest yards (312) in the third quarter. He’s passed for 372 yards in the second quarter and has a 57.8% completion rate in the third.
It’s a different story in the first and fourth quarters. Williams has both his highest passing yardage (509) and completion rate (70.8%) in the first quarter. His second-highest comes in the fourth, where he’s thrown for 443 yards and a 61.1% completion rate.
The numbers show that Williams, like most quarterbacks, is most comfortable at the start of games when the offense runs scripted plays. Williams also has a knack for high-pressure situations late in games. Figuring out how to fix the middle portion will help him elevate his play as the season progresses.
Keeping it close to home
Another trend proved to be true Sunday: Williams didn’t air it out much.
A majority of his passing yards (118) came between 10 and 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Williams threw for 81 yards on throws up to 10 yards and completed two of his four attempts beyond 20 yards for 47 yards. He completed all five of his passes behind the line for 39 yards.
Williams finished with a minus-2.5 average yards differential, according to Next Gen Stats, which was the seventh-lowest in Week 8. A negative number suggests Williams completed passes at a shorter average depth than he intended to throw.
A few of those shorter throws came on third down. The Bears did a better job on third down compared to previous games, going 6 for 13 for 46%. But five of those conversions came in the first and fourth quarters.
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Red zone issues reappear
Chicago had a chance to steal the game’s momentum in the first quarter when it put together two nice drives that went down the field. Instead of grabbing a 14-0 lead heading into the second quarter, the Bears led 6-0.
The Bears’ 1-for-3 showing in the red zone Sunday didn’t boost their overall numbers this season. Chicago has scored touchdowns on 47.8% of its trips to the red zone this season, which ranks 26th.
Sunday continued a recent trend over the past four games since the Bears went 2 for 3 against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. Chicago has gone 5 for 16, which is a 31.3% success rate during that period. The Bears have gone 3-1 during that span despite the low numbers.
Well-distributed penalties
A common refrain after Sunday’s game? The Bears need to fix their penalty problems for more offensive consistency. But the Bears’ 11 penalties for 79 yards weren’t just an offensive problem.
All three phases of the game had a hand in a double-digit penalty performance. Both the offense and defense committed four penalties, while special teams players were called for three penalties. Williams was called for two intentional grounding calls, while the offense had two false starts. Special teams earned two illegal formation penalties.
Chicago has been called for 64 penalties for 533 yards this season. The Bears are averaging 9.1 penalties per game in Johnson’s first season in charge.
Rome Odzune, DJ Moore shine
Let’s end on a positive note. Although the offense struggled at times, there were some bright spots.
Wide receiver Rome Odunze continued to take major steps in his second season. The former top-10 pick finished with seven catches for 114 receiving yards. Odunze earned the most targets (10) Sunday, and it was Odunze’s second 100-yard game of his season and the fourth in his career.
Veteran wide receiver DJ Moore also had his season-best showing. He finished with a season-high 73 receiving yards on four catches. His longest reception came late in the fourth quarter when he made a one-handed grab and took it 42 yards.
Sunday was the most yards Moore’s had in a game since Week 18 against the Green Bay Packers to end last season.
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