2022 NFL win totals: Over or under predictions for entire NFC North

The NFC North hasn’t changed much in recent years, but the 2022-23 season could prove to be valuable for bettors.

Green Bay has been the frontrunner for a few years now, but lost its best receiver in the offseason. Does that open the door for the rest of the NFC North? Chicago and Minnesota both have new coaches, while Detroit appears to be trending upward under second-year head coach Dan Campbell.

The win total market is a great way to take a stance on how you believe the division will shake out this year. Bet over or under each team’s respective preseason win total at Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports.

Here are my projections for all four teams from a win total perspective:

Green Bay Packers

Over 11 wins (+100)/Under 11 wins (-120)

The Packers have won 13 games in each of the past three seasons, winning a trio of division crowns over that span. They have fallen short in the postseason, having not made it to the Super Bowl since winning it all back in 2010.

But the postseason doesn’t matter when betting win totals, and Green Bay shouldn’t take too big of a step back after losing star receiver Davante Adams in the offseason. Rodgers, who has won-back-to-back MVP awards, will have to find a new primary target — and he has shown the ability to do just that.

According to Statmuse, Rodgers has a passer rating of 112.7 to go along with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions in 11 games without Adams since the talented receiver entered the league in 2014. Whether it is one of the two rookie receivers that Green Bay drafted or a veteran, Rodgers should handle life without Adams.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay should be improved. The Packers selected a pair of Georgia Bulldog defenders with their two picks in the first round and return cornerback Jaire Alexander, who missed 13 games due to injury after being the top-ranked cornerback via Pro Football Focus in 2020.

This team will find a way to win 12 games. It is the Packer way.

Pick: Over 11 wins

Minnesota Vikings

Over 9 wins (-135)/Under 9 wins (+115)

Mike Zimmer, who had been the head coach of the Vikings since 2014, is now gone. Enter Kevin O’Connell, who previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. The defending champs ranked second in the league with 10 plays of 50+ yards last year under O’Connell and head coach Sean McVay.

On offense, the Vikings have the pieces to make a playoff berth after missing the postseason in three of the last four years. Star receiver Justin Jefferson has recorded 3,016 yards and 17 touchdowns through his first two seasons, while Dalvin Cook continues to be one of the better running backs in the league.

Kirk Cousins has his limitations at quarterback, but he has produced in all four years in Minnesota. Cousins will reunite with O’Connell after the two worked together in Washington, which could lead to the quarterback’s best year yet.

The real impact a new coach could have is on how the Vikings handle close games. Minnesota led the league in 14 one-score games last year, going 6-8 in such contests. A lot of these games even came down to the final play. Expect positive regression coming, with the Vikings returning to the playoffs.

Pick: Over

Detroit Lions

Over 6.5 wins (-155)/Under 6.5 wins (+130)

It is not often that a team coming off a three-win season is a trendy sleeper, but that is the case for the Detroit Lions. In Dan Campbell’s first year at the helm, Detroit went 3-13-1 and posted a -142 point differential.

But the Lions went 10-6 against the spread, which helps explain why bettors are eager to back this team. This team added receiver D.J. Chark in the offseason before drafting both Aidan Hutchinson (edge rusher) and Jameson Williams (receivers) in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Detroit is one of four teams in the NFL with a higher preseason win total this year after going under the mark last season, joining a group that includes the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants.

According to Pro Football Focus, Detroit had the worst-ranked defensive grade in all of football last season. While the offense might be improved, it is hard to predict seven wins for the Lions unless their defense takes a massive step forward.

Pick: Under

Chicago Bears

Over 6 wins (-105)/Under 6 wins (-115)

As the juice would suggest, the value has dried up for those wanting to bet the under on Chicago’s regular-season win total. This has been a popular bet all offseason, which is why the number dropped a full game from its opening price.

The Bears are in transition after letting go of Matt Nagy and replacing him with first-year head coach Matt Eberflus. This organization is committed to a rebuild after losing Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Allen Robinson this past offseason.

But none of that could end up mattering if second-year quarterback Justin Fields takes a leap. While situations matter, many of the best quarterbacks can overcome that. Lamar Jackson led the Baltimore Ravens to a 8-3 clip last year and No. 1 spot in the AFC, despite injuries to several key players, before he ultimately was sidelined with an injury.

Fields flashed in his rookie year, most notably when he was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback during Week 9 after his performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This year is all about making sure the Bears have their quarterback, and I think they discover that during a six-win season to set up for a big leap in 2023.

Pick: Push