Examining Chicago Bears’ playoff, quick start chances after schedule release

The 2025 schedule is out and the Bears now know the path for what is shaping up to be an important season.

The Bears will be put under the spotlight right from the start. They’ll open on Monday Night Football against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on Sept. 8. It will be the first of five standalone games the Bears will play this season.

There are plenty of reasons for the intrigue surrounding Chicago. New head coach Ben Johnson takes over after being one of the top head-coaching candidates over the past few offseasons. Quarterback Caleb Williams also returns after an up-and-down rookie season looking to prove he was worth the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft.

The Bears are expecting to take a major step after a disastrous 5-12 season last year, including contending for a playoff spot. Bears general manager Ryan Poles hired one of the best coaches available and addressed many roster needs during the offseason.

“There’s no question it can happen in 2025,” Johnson said about making the playoffs at his introductory press conference in January. “It depends on how hard we’re willing to work and how much we’re willing to sacrifice though.”

In order to do that, though, the Bears will need to get off to a good start with one of the tougher schedules in the NFL.

Destined for a good start?

It only takes a few moments looking at the Bears schedule to realize that there aren’t too many “easy” parts. Seven of the teams Chicago will play this season made the playoffs last year and five of those teams have qualified for at least two consecutive postseasons.

But the Bears do have an opportunity to set themselves up for success by getting off to a good start.

Chicago starts the season against the Vikings then travels to the Detroit Lions, hosts the Dallas Cowboys and heads to the Las Vegas Raiders, respectively, before a Week 5 bye. Although most teams would prefer their bye to be closer to the middle of the season, an early bye could be a good moment to assess the good and bad that’s happened.

The Bears’ season-opener seems like good spot to face a division rival. They’ll likely open the season against Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who would be making his first career start start after missing all of last season with a torn meniscus. It will be a tough task for McCarthy’s first start to be against the Bears’ veteran defense.

The next three teams will each have new coaching staffs. The Lions replaced both their offensive and defensive coordinators and position coaches, including Johnson, while the Cowboys (Brian Schottenheimer) and Raiders (Pete Carroll) each have new head coaches.

Like the Bears, all three teams will be trying to find their footing during the first month of the season. It’s likely that the Lions might take a small step back with their new coaches, but the talent is still there. Going to Ford Field in Week 2 for an emotional return for Johnson likely will be the Bears’ toughest opening test.

The next two games won’t be cakewalks, either. After going 7-10 last season because of injuries, the Cowboys will try to get back into playoffs. The Raiders also traded for quarterback Geno Smith for Carroll, who could made an impact for a 4-13 team in his return to coaching.

How the Bears adjust to their new coaches will help determine whether they win those matchups. If Williams grasps Johnson’s offense quickly and the defense plays to its potential, the Bears have a good chance of starting the year at 3-1.

Playoffs?

Ten will most likely be the magic number that most Bears fans will be looking for this season. With the exception of last season, 10-win teams have qualified for the playoffs since the NFL expanded its playoff field in 2021. The Seahawks missed the postseason last year despite winning 10 games.

Many sports betting oddsmakers expect the Bears to make a jump from last season. Most lines currently have the Bears’ 2025 over/under total listed at 8.5.

So can the Bears get to 10 wins? It won’t be easy with their schedule. But it’ll start by doing something they couldn’t do last year: beating the teams they’re better than.

The Raiders, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Cleveland Browns all finished with worse records than the Bears last season. The Steelers and Cowboys each have over/under win totals equal or less than the Bears’. Those are six winnable games on the Bears’ board.

“There’s no question it can happen in 2025. It depends on how hard we’re willing to work and how much we’re willing to sacrifice though.”

—  Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears head coach

Then the Bears will need to reverse their NFC North record. Chicago is 3-15 in the division since Poles took over in 2022. Unlike the past few seasons, the Bears seem like they’ll be able to compete with their rivals. If Chicago at least splits those matchups, that’ll be at least three more wins.

The rest of the Bears’ schedule — the Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles — is filled with teams expected to win more games than the Bears. Just like the Bears won’t win all the games they’re favored in, they’ll likely steal one or two games in games they’re set as underdogs.

So the road to 10 wins is realistic. But the Bears will need to see big improvements compared to last season, primarily from Johnson and Williams. If that happens, the franchise will be heading in the right direction after years of uncertainty.