SALMAGUNDI: Is Illinois' 16th Congressional District set for 2020?

It’s understood U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Channahon, is in a political tight spot because he clearly takes umbrage at some of President Donald Trump’s rhetoric but has to be measured in his comments because he knows his district still strongly backs the commander in chief. Kinzinger’s tried to be on both sides of that divide, though he rarely speaks as critically about Trump as he did before it became clear who would become the party’s nominee in 2016.

As it came time for his own re-election bid, Kinzinger drafted harder right, telling a group of our editors he hopes Trump is “president for another six years.” After Democrats raided about 40 House seats, Kinzinger was one of few Republicans left standing willing to criticize Trump in a New York Times article about the party’s path forward.

This contrast is encapsulated in Kinzinger’s frequent dubious talking point of suggesting voters like Trump’s policies but not his tone. In truth, the president’s coarse personality toward opponents has long been a selling point among fervent supporters, such that the tone often is the policy. He’d absolutely hate a guy like me if he cared who I was, and the majority of voters in our area would encourage him to take his best verbal shot.

Last week the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight looked at the 200 House districts that remained red in the November midterms and found stark relief points: “Democrats didn’t pick up a single district where Trump won 55 percent of the vote or more,” wrote Geoffrey Skelley. “Conversely, where Trump won less than 45 percent of the vote in 2016, no GOP candidate won in 2018.”

Kinzinger’s 16th Congressional district indeed voted 55-45 for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, trailing only the 15th (71 percent Trump) and 18th (60 percent) House districts, and matching the 12th. As Kinzinger defeated Rockford Democrat Sara Dady 59.7-40.3 last month, it seems the district is getting even redder while suburban purple zones are starting to shade blue.

That trend bodes well for Kinzinger in 2020. His biggest electoral threat likely remains a primary opponent, and while I’m no GOP insider it seems he’s well funded and well liked enough by establishment types to remain the favored choice. As the Illinois GOP struggles to regroup following a divisive and ultimately losing gubernatorial effort, it’d make sense to cling to Kinzinger’s veteran experience as a standard-bearer and hope he remains enough strength to withstand whatever gerrymandering efforts Democrats devise after the 2020 census.

No candidate is unbeatable, but Kinzinger has a firm upper hand. In the New York Times he conceded he takes little pleasure in being asked to account for “every tweet, every comment” the president makes, and I expect him to continue to be vocal when Trump insults veterans or the law enforcement community, even if his reddest supporters wish he’d just fall in line behind the man atop the ticket.

That said, Kinzinger also might consider challenging U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, who would be 75 on Election Day 2020 and has already served nearly four full terms, but hasn’t given any indication he’ll retire. Kinzinger turns 41 in February and is already entering his fifth term in Congress. That gives him the experience edge over 50-year-old U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood, R-Peoria, who assumed office in September 2015 after a little more than four years in the Illinois Senate, and the youth edge over GOP Reps Mike Bost and John Shimkus, who are 57 and 60, but have been in Congress since 1995 and 1997, respectively.

Age and experience are just two factors, and it’s presumptive to guess any of these men have sights set on Durbin’s seat. But they’re among the most electorally successful Republicans the state has to offer and it’d be surprising if none of them at least tested the waters. If Kinzinger only seeks another House term, he’s unlikely to need the support of a president who will be busy with his own tough re-election bid.

But flipping Durbin’s seat to red would be a major coup for Trump, and whomever emerges from the primary is almost certainly going to have to walk the tight wire Kinzinger’s managed for years now. There are four Illinois Congressional districts that gave Clinton stronger support than Trump got in his strongholds, and statewide Clinton won by nearly 1 million votes. Embracing Trump isn’t a path to Senate victory, at least not in Illinois.

Who’s got your vote? It’s never too early to ask.

SCOTT T. HOLLAND is a former associate editor of The Times who continues to contribute his column plus help with editing and writing. He can be reached at newsroom@mywebtimes.com, facebook.com/salmagundi or twitter.com/sth749.