Research says 2021-2022 flu season will be severe. But will it?

Dr. Atul Gupta said this flu season is certain to be worse than last year’s flu season.

But not because this year’s flu strain will necessary be severe.

“Last year, we had no flu season,” Gupta, an infectious disease specialist with Southwest Infectious Disease Associates in Joliet, said.

“We’re always gearing up for what may be the worst possible scenario in the health care industry.”

Gupta is also on staff at Silver Cross Hospital in New Lenox and AMITA St. Joseph Medical Center in Joliet, and is the chairman of both hospitals’ infection control committees. He said the scenarios where the flu spreads just weren’t happening last year.

“Kids, for the most part, were not in school,” Gupta said. “People weren’t traveling, for business or pleasure, not nearly as much. People weren’t going into the office or riding trains. When people were going out, they were largely wearing masks and using a lot of hand sanitizer. The thing about that is that it really shows how all these are effective in reducing the spread of viruses.”

What flu strains are circulating this year, and will they be severe? Again, that is not clear, he said.

“We typically develop the flu vaccine based on the flu strains that are circulating in the southern hemisphere, particular Australia,” Gupta said. “Those are the ones that come to the northern hemisphere in the winter. But Australia, especially, really didn’t have much flu because they had a very strict lockdown and lots of social distancing.”

But just because health experts don’t have as much as information as part years doesn’t mean they have none, Gupta said.

“The formulation for the flu shot this year is based on the best evidence they have, and only time will tell how effective that will be,” Gupta said. “It’s almost certain to be 30 to 70% effective.”

If those percentages sound low to some people, it’s because they don’t understand how vaccines work. People who receive flu – and COVID-19 vaccines, for that matter – aren’t necessarily protected 100%. But the vaccine will greatly lessen the chance that, if they do get sick, they will not experience severe illness or die, Gupta said.

Gupta said people can safely receive their flu shot and COVID-19 booster at the same time. They may also space them out by a couple of weeks if they are concerned about side effects, he added. But most people do well with getting both vaccines at the same time, he said.

It’s also safe for people with egg allergies to receive a flu vaccine, he said. Those same people don’t need to seek out a flu vaccine that wasn’t made with eggs, he added.

When is the best time to get the flu shot?

“I got mine this morning,” Gupta said Thursday. “October, November is the best time to get it, so you’re protected the entire flu season.”

What else can people do to prevent the spread of flu? Stay home when sick and wear a face mask if you have symptoms and must go out, Gupta said.

“Flu is also spread through surfaces,” Gupta said. “So if you go to the grocery store, wipe off that cart and be mindful of the situation you’re in.”

Once COVID-19 is past, should people continue to wear face masks during flu season? That depends on people’s level of risk and comfort with wearing them. Clearly, though, face masks do work and the habit of wearing them was already established in other countries before COVID-19, he said.

“In a lot of countries, you put a mask on whether it’s flu season or not,” Gupta said. “It’s seen as being considerate of the people around you when you’re out in public.”