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Winning the first inning will be critical for Cubs in Game 5

Chicago Cubs' Ian Happ (8) runs the bases after hitting a 3-run home run during the first inning of Game 4 of baseball's National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

This is being written at a point in time before the Cubs announce their Game 5 starting pitcher against Milwaukee.

Don’t know, don’t want to know.

But it’s probably the most important call of the season. Through four games of this series, the first inning has meant everything. The Cubs handed the Brewers some early momentum, then took it back to force Saturday’s decisive contest.

Remember, teams that get a bye in the National League playoffs traditionally come out flat in the division round. If the Cubs win Game 5, NL bye teams will be 1-7 in the second round during the four years this playoff format has existed.

The Cubs gave away that advantage quickly in Game 1. Matthew Boyd, starting on short rest, served up a pair of meatballs to Brice Turang and William Contreras. The Brewers began the first inning with three straight doubles and the Cubs never recovered.

In Game 2 the Cubs gave themselves a chance with Seiya Suzuki’s 3-run homer in the top of the first. But Shota Imanaga gave it right back by surrendering a 3-run tying home run to Andrew Vaughn, who hadn’t gone deep since Aug. 16.

With all respect given to the positive things he’s done during the past two seasons, Imanaga is the last person on the pitching staff who should take the mound for the Cubs on Saturday. He’s given up 10 home runs in his last 22 innings. This would be handing the Brewers instant momentum.

“This is a game where we’re going to have everybody available, maybe with the exception of Matt Boyd,” Counsell said during a Friday Zoom call with reporters. “Everyone is going to be available. It’s the cliche here, but I’m going to tell you we’ve got 11 pitchers to figure out how to get 27 outs. And that’s how we’re treating it.”

The logical choice for a starter would be veteran Colin Rea, who is well-rested, or maybe lefty Drew Pomeranz as an opener. But Counsell has thrown some curves before in this series.

So what it is the best path to 27 outs?

· Relievers Daniel Palencia, Brad Keller, Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar pitched in both Games 3 and 4 at Wrigley Field. Will they be sharp if they throw three times in four days?

That’s impossible to say. Pomeranz seems to be in a groove, throwing three perfect innings in this series with 5 strikeouts. Palencia wasn’t sharp in Game 2, giving up a 3-run homer to Jackson Chourio.

The key here is not to expect too much. One inning for Keller and Palencia should be fine, but they both have a tendency to lose effectiveness when usage increases.

The Brewers have not scored against Keller, Thielbar or Pomeranz all year, regular season included.

Andrew Kittredge pitched in Game 3, but not Game 4. Left-hander Taylor Rogers hasn’t pitched at all in this series. Jordan Wicks might have been a better choice for that roster spot.

· Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale and Ben Brown haven’t pitched since Game 1. Civale was excellent that day, Soroka awful. That doesn’t mean the Cubs will get the same outcome if those pitchers take the mound Saturday.

Brown was a little shaky, with a hit and two walks, but he tossed two scoreless innings in Game 1. He should probably get an inning Saturday. Including the regular season, he has a 1.38 ERA against Milwaukee over 13 innings.

· On the offensive side, Nico Hoerner has been a machine, hitting .429 in the playoffs. His 12 postseason hits are second only to Aaron Judge, who has 13. Michael Busch leads all of MLB with 4 playoff home runs. The downside is he has 4 RBI, since all the homers were solo shots.

Then there are a couple of positive developments. Kyle Tucker reached base seven times in the two games at Wrigley Field, on 4 hits and 3 walks, including his first home run since Sept. 2, the day before the left the lineup with a calf strain.

“Kyle is going to impact this thing,” Counsell said. “He’s just too good of a player, too good of a hitter. He’s going to impact this thing. Hopefully it’s happening at the best time.”

Ian Happ not only delivered the 3-run homer in the first inning of Game 4, he also sent a deep fly ball that Milwaukee center fielder Blake Perkins caught with his back touching the ivy. Happ has been a notoriously streaky hitter in his career, which can be maddening at times, but his hot streaks can be scorching. At the moment, Happ is hitting .115 in the playoffs.

· The Cubs are certain to see Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski in Game 5. He tossed three impressive innings in Game 2, hitting 104 mph on the radar gun. He also has a history of being wild. In two regular-season appearances against the Cubs, they scored 6 runs in eight innings against him.

· Counsell said Cade Horton’s bullpen session went well. So it seems like things are trending well for Horton to come back from a rib fracture if the Cubs advance.

Should the Cubs win, Games 1 and 2 of the NL Championship Series will be Monday and Tuesday in Los Angeles, while the Cubs would host Games 3-5. The NLCS would open with the Dodgers at Milwaukee if the Brewers win.