An acreage swing toward more soybeans and less corn in the upcoming growing season is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Justin Benavidez, new USDA chief economist, unveiled the preliminary acreage and balance sheets to open the Agricultural Outlook Forum.

“These forecasts assumed normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development and will be updated in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report,” Benavidez said.

“The May WASDE will incorporate farmers’ survey-based planting intentions as indicated in the March 31 prospective plantings report and forecasts for winter wheat production, as well as global and country-by-country supply and demand projections.”

Initial early expectations for 2026 prior to the start of the spring planting season are for a decline in total planted area of corn, wheat and soybeans relative to the previous year.

Combined acreage for the three crops is projected at 224 million acres — a decline of less than 1% from last year’s final plantings.

The slight acreage decline in the combined area for the three crops assumes a normal level of prevent-plant acres and a modest expansion in Conservation Reserve Program acres.

“Season-average farm prices received by producers for corn, soybeans and wheat are all forecast to rise slightly,” Benavidez noted.

Soybean forecast

• Planted area is forecast to rise nearly 4 million acres, reflecting stronger profitability compared to other crops, along with expected crop rotations across the Corn Belt and the Delta.

• Assuming normal weather conditions, yields are expected to average 53 bushels per acre — matching last growing season — leading to a 188 million bushel increase to production to 4.45 billion bushels.

• U.S. soybean crush is projected to rise by 85 million bushels, reaching 2.655 billion, supported by rising soybean meal and oil demand. The growth in domestic soybean meal consumption is expected to moderate compared with the previous two years while exports are forecast to expand.

• Given normal weather, oilseed meal supplies are expected to be ample in 2026-2027, keeping soybean meal prices relatively flat with the prior marketing year at $300 per short ton.

• With higher supplies mostly offset by higher use, soybean ending stocks for 2026-2027 are projected at 355 million bushels, nearly flat with the 2025-2026 forecast.

• The season-average farm price is projected at $10.30 per bushel, marginally higher than the prior marketing year.

• U.S. exports for 2026-2027 are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, a recovery from the 2025-2026 forecast of 1.58 billion bushels.

• Exports for the 2025-2026 marketing year are forecast to decline to the lowest level in 13 years, accounting for a record-low share of just 23% of global soybean trade. This reduction reflects tariff measures that curtailed shipments to China — the United States’ largest export destination — which imported an average 28.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the 2021-2022 through 2023-2024 marketing years.

• Additionally, Argentina’s temporary elimination of export taxes last September led to a counter-seasonal surge in exports in November, further impacting U.S. market share globally.

• During June-November 2025, at the tail end of the 2024-2025 marketing year and the beginning of 2025-2026, U.S. soybean exports to China were virtually absent; however, shipments to other markets surged to their highest levels since this same period in 2018, largely driven by lower U.S. prices relative to Brazil due to pressure from Chinese tariffs on U.S. products.

Corn forecast

• The U.S. crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, down about 7% from the prior year, and planted area is forecast at 94 million acres, 4.8 million lower than last year.

• The yield projection of 183 bushels per acre assumes normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, after a record high average of 186.5 last growing season.

• With beginning stocks up from the prior year, total corn supplies are forecast at 17.9 billion bushels, down from the record of 18.6 billion in 2025-2026.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2026-2027 is forecast to decline about 2% on lower domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial is flat at 7 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is forecast at 5.6 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially unchanged motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual use is down about 3% to 6 billion bushels on lower supplies.

• Exports are projected 200 million bushels lower to 3.1 billion. U.S. global trade share is expected to decline slightly on larger competitor exports from South America and modest global demand growth.

• Ending stocks are projected at 1.8 billion bushels, 290 million lower than a year ago resulting in stocks relative to use at 11.4%, down from 2025-2026, but higher than the most recent five-year average of about 10.8%.

• The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast up 10 cents to $4.20 per bushel.

Wheat forecast

• U.S. production is projected 6% below 2025-2026 at 1.86 billion bushels on a reduction in harvested area and a lower yield.

• The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report estimated winter wheat seeded area at 33 million acres, down less than 1% from 2025. Combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2026-2027 are projected slightly lower than last year with area in the Northern Plains expected to shift to soybeans and other oilseeds.

• Total wheat planted area for is projected at 45 million acres, down 0.3 million acres from last year. Harvested area is forecast lower at 36.6 million acres and is based on the 10-year average harvest-to-plant ratio.

• The all-wheat yield for 2026-2027 is projected down 5% from last year’s record at 50.8 bushels per acre and is based on a long-term linear trend.

• Beginning stocks are forecast increasing in 2026-2027 to 931 million bushels, up 9% from the previous year. The higher beginning stocks are more than offset by a smaller crop, resulting in 2026-2027 supplies reduced 2% to 2.911 billion bushels.

• Projected total use at 1.978 billion bushels, is lower from a year earlier, but above the five-year average. Domestic use is projected unchanged with minimal changes to all categories. Food use is projected at 969 million bushels, 2 million above 2025-2026, while projected seed use is lower at 59 million. Feed and residual use is steady at 100 million bushels and remaining restrained with abundant corn supplies.

• U.S. wheat exports are lower at 850 million bushels with greater exportable supplies from Argentina and Australia expected in the first half of the 2026-2027 marketing year. Additionally, Northern Hemisphere competition is anticipated remaining heightened from Russia, the European Union and Canada with their collective exportable supplies expected to be similar to 20252-2026.

• Despite supplies projected lower for 2026-2027, reduced total use results in ending stocks nearly unchanged at 933 million bushels and the highest ending stocks in seven years. However, the stocks-to-use ratio of 47% is only modestly higher than 2025-2026, resulting in a 2026-2027 wheat season-average farm price of $5 per bushel, slightly higher than last year.