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Federal Reserve survey: From steep losses to modest profits

Agricultural conditions remained strained but slightly improved over the last six weeks, according to a survey across the Corn Belt’s Federal Reserve districts.

The Beige Book, published about every six weeks, summarizes comments from contacts surveyed on or before Nov. 17.

Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic conditions in its district through reports from banks and branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by businesses, community groups, economists, market experts and other sources.

This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve system and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

Here are what the Corn Belt districts reported regarding agricultural conditions:

Chicago

Net farm income prospects for the 7th District increased slightly during the Oct. 7 to Nov. 17 reporting period as crop prices increased.

Corn and soybean harvesting went quickly across most of the district, although dry conditions hurt yields in some places.

District corn and soybean production was strong despite some disease pressures, and crop quality varied widely. Applying fungicides helped avoid some crop losses, but it also boosted costs.

Soybean prices increased with additional international buyers, including the return of purchases by China. Corn and wheat prices also rose.

Cattle prices decreased amid increased volatility in cattle markets, and hog, milk and egg prices were down as well.

“Contacts reported highly variable financial performances by farms, with some experiencing steep losses and others making modest profits,” according to the report. “Many farmers were delaying capital expenditures due to tight margins.

“With farmland values holding steady, most farm operations should be able to cover higher expenses for the 2026 growing season.”

The 7th District of Chicago includes the northern two-thirds of Illinois and Indiana, all of Iowa, the southern two-thirds of Wisconsin and Michigan’s Lower Peninsula.

St. Louis

Agriculture conditions in the 8th District have remained strained but are slightly improved since the previous report.

Recent low water levels in the Mississippi River have caused significant reductions in barge capacity and efficiency, resulting in further cost increases.

A farmer in Mississippi reported that farmers are storing their crops and waiting for market movement to unload products, as supply is significantly above demand.

Another farmer in Mississippi reported that conditions are starting to trend better, noting a slight increase in commodity demand.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve District includes the southern parts of Illinois and Indiana and eastern half of Missouri, as well as parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi.

Minneapolis

Agricultural conditions remained weak despite strong crop harvests in the 9th District.

Farm incomes in the third quarter fell from a year earlier for almost 80% of ag lenders, according to a recent survey; 70% reported that farm capital spending decreased.

Contacts were hopeful but uncertain that a China trade deal might boost demand for bountiful soybean inventories.

The Minneapolis-based 9th District includes all of Minnesota, the Dakotas and Montana, the northern one-third of Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

Kansas City

The 10th District agricultural economy remained subdued despite increases in crop prices during early November.

Corn prices increased about 5% from mid-October, while soybean and wheat prices increased more than 10% alongside optimism surrounding increased export activity in the coming months.

The increase in prices could support revenues; however, profit opportunities are likely to remain narrow and continue weighing on farm finances in many portions of the region.

Lenders reported a modest increase in ranchland values as strong cattle prices continued to support conditions in some areas of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City District, and despite ongoing weakness among crop producers, cropland values remained steady.

The Kansas City district includes the western part of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado as well as northern New Mexico.

Tom Doran

Tom C. Doran

Field Editor