Here at Eye On Illinois, the preferred focus is government in favor of politics, but of course, campaigns and elections are essential to determining who gets to do the actual governing.

As such, I enjoyed reading Brenden Moore’s Capitol News Illinois report on Thursday’s candidate forum featuring four men hoping to win the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination. (The recap is at tinyurl.com/CNIprimaryforum.)

My attention landed on the insistence that Illinois needs to repeal the 2017 TRUST Act, which requires the federal government to supply criminal warrants to get state and local law enforcement to help enforce immigration laws, and the 2021 SAFE-T Act.

That position could win votes in the general election, but rolling back existing laws requires significant support in the General Assembly. On paper, it doesn’t seem likely there will be enough Republicans in Springfield to repeal current laws or advance any GOP governor’s political agenda.

With the caveat that our state’s ballot access laws allow for changes before the November election, here’s a look at the current electoral math.

As always, all 118 House seats are in play. The current Democratic majority is 78-40, leaving Republicans 20 shy of a one-seat majority. Currently, 77 districts have at least one Republican candidate on the March 17 primary ballot. Democrats are competing in 96. Considering uncontested races, the Democrats will start with 41 seats, the GOP with 21.

That leaves 56 contested elections. All but eight have an incumbent seeking reelection: 16 Republicans and 32 Democrats. Add those incumbents to the uncontested races, and it’s 73 Democrats against 37 Republicans. So even if you spot the GOP the eight races with no incumbent and get the party to 45 seats, Republicans have to take out 15 current incumbents to control the House 60-58.

In the Senate, the current Democratic majority is 40-19, meaning 11 seats must change hands to flip the balance. But only 39 are on the ballot this cycle, and Democrats hold 17 of the 20 seats that won’t be contested.

The GOP also has seven uncontested districts, so it’ll start with at least 10 seats and seven incumbents. That means they need to win in 13 new districts, but are competing only in 15. Of those, five have no incumbent running, meaning Democrats already in the Senate have to lose at least eight races for the scale to tip red.

A deeper political analysis would consider the contested districts and voting histories to see which trend strongly in a given direction or might be in play via strong turnout thanks to important races higher up the ballot.

Even absent that context, the odds for a partisan shift are long. Where are the votes to make campaign concepts a reality?

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.