Our family is in the process of moving to a new house, which made Tuesday’s press blitz around National Voter Registration Day a helpful reminder to contact the county office and get paperwork sorted well in advance of the next trip to the ballot box.
At the risk of preaching to the choir, if you’re reading this state government column and somehow not yet registered, or might need to log a clerical update, now is a perfect time to visit ova.elections.il.gov and begin the process. Anyone who will turn 18 on or before Nov. 3, 2026, can register now and participate in primary elections.
It’s also a fine occasion to remind voters of their outsized influence in partisan primaries compared to general elections. The Republican gubernatorial field is filling up again after six candidates split about 797,000 votes in 2002.
That was right on point with the average for five other GOP primaries since 2002. With four announced tickets so far, and plurality sufficing to advance to November, the winner needs to amass at least 200,050 votes if turnout remains consistent.
The 2022 primary had no such drama, with state Sen. Darren Bailey, of Xenia, capturing more than 57% and outpacing second place by 333,000 votes. That was starkly different from 2010, when former state Sen. Bill Brady won with 20.26%, besting Senate colleague Kirk Dillard by fewer than 200 votes. DuPage County’s Bob Schillerstrom finished last in that seven-candidate field with 7,420 votes, not quite 1% – a line almost identical to Max Solomon, who finished last in 2022.
Even the two-person GOP primary in 2018 was razor-thin, with barely more than three percentage points separating incumbent Bruce Rauner from Rep. Jeanne Ives. In that race, Rauner cleared 372,000 votes. In 2014, to win a four-person race, Rauner got nearly 329,000. That was good for a nudge past 40%, enough to squeeze by Dillard, who cleared 37%.
Since 2002, GOP primary turnout has worked out to an average of roughly 20.75% of the general election total. Although turnout cleared 4 million in 2018 and 2022, the six-cycle average is closer to 3.8 million. In other words, in a state of more than 12 million people, only a tiny percentage are involved at the earliest electoral stages. Keep this in mind when candidates claim to speak for the entire state.
Without detailing all the numbers on hundreds of smaller races, from U.S. House down to your local county board member, rest assured, even fewer people can make a difference when the participation pool is shallower – and being involved in electing (or opposing) someone you might see around town is a reminder of how much power one vote can contain.
• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.