May 02, 2025

Eye On Illinois: Enrollment is down, and so is the birth rate

Numbers tell a story, but rarely without help.

“Declining enrollment” is a common phrase in discussions about the challenges of higher education. It also bleeds into public school dialogue, intended to disparage quality.

Obviously, college and grad school programs aren’t mandatory, but neither is K-12 education, given that parents can just tell the state they’re not enrolling their kids. It’s further unfair to compare public universities with your local school district, given the difference is how each is funded and what it costs to attend.

But implying a measured decrease in students is sufficient to reveal a failing elementary or high school district ignores other factors that might be at play. Perhaps there are fewer school-age children because there are fewer parents in town because they left to chase different employment. Perhaps the aging population is wealthy enough to stay in their large homes near the well-run schools, making it harder for younger families to establish a foothold.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, birth rates stopped increasing with the 2007 Great Recession. A University of New Hampshire analysis determined that the nation is down 11.8 million new kids who had prior patterns sustained.

Some families do move in search of better schools. But that’s only one data point in a larger conversation.

MAILBAG: Regarding low voter turnout in local elections, two more readers chimed in with valuable insight – one from each side of the ballot.

A senior from the DeKalb area: “The timing of information is also important. With mail-in ballots, we receive the ballots early, when there is no information available. By the time the paper is publishing candidate information, my ballot is already mailed in. I mail it soon after receiving it so I don’t forget, and also to allow time for our ‘snail mail’ to process and deliver it on time. …

“I tried to find out as much as I could about all the candidates, but there were some offices never reported on until a few days before the election, park district comes to mind specifically. … I would hope your paper would keep this in mind when reporting on the candidates. We need information about the candidates in order to make informed decisions about who to vote for.”

Timothy Broderick, who ran unsuccessfully as a Joliet Junior College District trustee candidate: “I learned many things from this experience … making voters aware of candidates, their positions, and most importantly, provide a means for engagement with candidates. To that end, I will have a landing page with avenues to learn about my position so that the voters can make fully informed decisions. Perhaps my skill sets, integrity and leadership will offer me opportunities to serve in 2027.”

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.

Scott Holland

Scott T. Holland

Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Media Illinois. Follow him on Twitter at @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.