Yorkville’s population expected to reach 25,636 in four years and city would secure home rule status

YORKVILLE – The population of Yorkville is projected to reach 25,636 in just four years.

A chart created by the city’s Community Development Department forecasting new home construction in Yorkville shows the city reaching that figure by 2026.

Clearing the 25,000 population threshold means the city will be in a position to become a home-rule community with additional taxing and regulatory powers.

According to the city’s residential development analysis, construction in the Grande Reserve and the Bristol Bay subdivisions will be the two biggest drivers of population growth.

Grande Reserve is expected to add about 240 new single-family homes each year for the next four years, while Bristol Bay is projected to build 174 townhouses and 49 single-family homes each year over the same period.

Caledonia subdivision is slated for 46 new single-family homes for each of the next four years, while additional homes are to be constructed in smaller numbers all over the community.

Currently, the city’s official count from the 2020 Census places Yorkville’s population at 21,533.

However, the city has calculated that development has already pushed the population over 23,000 and that new residential construction will bring another 500 to 700 residents into the community every year over the next four years, passing the 25,000 mark.

The increasing population has become a significant factor in planning by community leaders, ranging from the Yorkville City Council’s decision to tap into Lake Michigan for the city’s water supply, to School District Y115′s evolving intentions to construct a second middle school.

The city is armed with platted subdivision plans and building permit applications when it makes population projections.

Which is why it came as something of a shock to city officials to learn that a Chicago-area regional planning agency is predicting that Yorkville’s population will have dropped below its 21,000 by 2030.

The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) has published population forecasts that clearly are inaccurate, Yorkville City Administrator Bart Olson told the Yorkville City Council on Nov. 22.

CMAP’s figures help determine what communities receive grant monies and where transportation dollars are to be spent.

Growing communities ranging from Streamwood and Cicero to Mt. Prospect and Hoffman Estates also show population losses under a report published by CMAP in October, Olson said.

Olson said CMAP appears to be using a flawed model for its calculations and has asked the agency to rework its numbers.

“You can’t make decisions now and shortchange us because of bad data,” Olson said. “Somebody’s got to put the brakes on this.”

Aldermen reacted with incredulity.

“Their numbers do not make any sense to me,” Alderman Chris Funkhouser said. “This is not acceptable and they have to be responsive.”

Ironically, the flawed CMAP numbers came to the city’s attention because of its application to the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) for a permit to access Lake Michigan water.

Olson said IDNR has essentially accepted the city’s population figures, meaning that the CMAP numbers are not expected to disrupt the city’s plans to tap into the lake.

However, Olson said he is working with Kendall County and municipal officials to lobby CMAP into recalculating its projections.