History doesn’t always repeat itself.

But one thing remains pretty consistent in regards to the makeup of the teams that qualify for the IHSA playoffs: teams that qualify for the playoffs, tend to repeat the process more often than not.

Certainly there are always a few new teams that would break into the field on a year-to-year basis, but the percentages have always been fairly stable and you could almost always count on about an 80% return rate from year-to-year.

In fact, there were several seasons where that percentage pushed 85%.

But in the gap between the 2021 and 2022 seasons there was a crack in that facade, for the first time since the field expanded to 256 teams, as that percentage dipped below 75% at 73.82%.

Now, that level seems to be more of the norm as 73.4% of the field was repeat performers from 2023 to 2024.

One thing, however, has remained fairly constant throughout: the teams that find themselves at or near the top of each classification remains extremely consistent.

For years, I’ve used what I call a three-year win model to project what the field will look like come October, as well as to try to identify where the classifications breaks will fall. It isn’t a precise science, especially with the percentage of repeat teams continuing to fall, but it does provide a pretty fair estimation of where classification breaks will fall.

While the win model hasn’t done as solid of a job of predicting the field as a whole, it continued to do a very solid job of projecting the classification lines and where they might break.

This is specifically a more interesting project this season as the IHSA’s new policies for multipliers and the return to a one-year enrollment plan provided some rather pertinent shifts to what classifications schools might land in.

That’s led to a lot of differences in the fields. Six of the state champions will find themselves in higher classifications.

In addition, Batavia recently announced its intention to play up to Class 7A for the next two seasons. Antioch and Glenbard South are fulfilling the second year of their 6A playing up arrangement. No other teams have officially announced intent to play up. East St. Louis is expected to play up and this forecast has them playing up in 6A as they have for the last few seasons. St. Rita hasn’t made its intention known and for the purposes of this exercise they’ve been left where their enrollment will take them without playing up which is Class 6A.

The model forecasts the 256 teams most likely to reach the postseason based on the performance of the past three full seasons.

NO FORECASTING of what the upcoming season is applied to this projection. Don’t worry, those will come soon after opening night.

The only tool that is used is establishing the three-year win patterns of every program in the state.

Teams that earned at least 15 wins over the past three seasons were in. In addition, six teams that amassed 14 wins over that time frame also needed to be added to the field so the projection could reach the full 256 teams. Tiebreakers were used to decide which 14-win teams were included, based on more recent success.

Here’s where the model has the classification breaks landing:

After establishing the 256-team field, one can put together prospective brackets based on the previous success levels of those programs.

Here are the most successful programs inside the three-year model and which classifications those schools are expected to land in:

Here’s a class-by-class breakdown of what looks interesting by using the projected classification break lines:

Class 1A

Enrollment range: Up to 312.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Gillespie, Eldorado, Chicago Richards, Orr, Momence

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Chicago Marshall, Hamilton County, Sullivan, Mendon Unity, Johnston City

Class 2A

Enrollment range: 313-421

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Gillespie, Eldorado, Chicago Richards, Orr, Momence

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Chicago Marshall, Hamilton County, Sullivan, Mendon Unity, Johnston City

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Peotone, Carver, Pleasant Plains, White County, Hoopeston.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): West Frankfort, Vandalia, Aurora Central Catholic, Clark, Hillsboro.

Class 3A

Enrollment range: 422-557.7

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Peotone, Carver, Pleasant Plains, White County, Hoopeston.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): West Frankfort, Vandalia, Aurora Central Catholic, Clark, Hillsboro.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Breese Mater Dei, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner, Paris, Belleville Althoff.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Sandwich, Murphysboro, Kewanee, Manteno, South Shore

Class 4A

Enrollment range: 558-920.7

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Breese Mater Dei, Bishop McNamara, Noble/Rauner, Paris, Belleville Althoff.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Sandwich, Murphysboro, Kewanee, Manteno, South Shore

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Woodstock, Rockford Boylan, Noble/UIC, Montini, Woodstock North.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Sterling, Elmwood Park, Vocational, Noble/Pritzker, Ridgewood.

Class 5A

Enrollment range: 921-1386

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Woodstock, Rockford Boylan, Noble/UIC, Montini, Woodstock North.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Sterling, Elmwood Park, Vocational, Noble/Pritzker, Ridgewood.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Kankakee, Bloomington, Marmion, Lake Forest, Hinsdale South.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Fenton, Dunlap, Glenwood, Washington, Crystal Lake Central

Class 6A

Enrollment range: 1387-1785

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Kankakee, Bloomington, Marmion, Lake Forest, Hinsdale South.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Fenton, Dunlap, Glenwood, Washington, Crystal Lake Central.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Quincy, Rolling Meadows, Plainfield East, Lake Zurich, Plainfield Central

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Shepard, Rockford Auburn, Oak Lawn Community, Hononegah, T.F. South

Class 7A

Enrollment range: 1786-2310

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Quincy, Rolling Meadows, Plainfield East, Lake Zurich, Plainfield Central

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Shepard, Rockford Auburn, Oak Lawn Community, Hononegah, T.F. South

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Proviso West, Andrew, DePaul Prep, Mundelein.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard East, Elgin, Plainfield South, Schaumburg, Glenbard West.

Class 8A

Enrollment range: 2311 and up

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Proviso West, Andrew, DePaul Prep, Mundelein.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard East, Elgin, Plainfield South, Schaumburg, Glenbard West.