June 18, 2025
Shaw Local
Illinois High School Football NewsPhoto GalleriesSubscribeAnalysisFeaturesPodcastNewsletterPhoto Store
Alden-Hebron Giants Amboy Clippers Antioch Sequoits Ashton-Franklin Center Raiders Barrington Broncos Batavia Bulldogs Bartlett Hawks Benet Academy Redwings Bishop McNamara Fightin' Irish Bolingbrook Raiders Bradley-Bourbonnais Boilermakers Brother Rice Crusaders Buffalo Grove Bison Bureau Valley Storm Burlington Central Rockets Carmel Corsairs Cary Grove Trojans Clifton Central Comets Coal City Coalers Conant Cougars Crystal Lake Central Tigers Crystal Lake South Gators DeKalb Barbs Dixon Dukes Downers Grove North Trojans Downers Grove South Mustangs Dundee-Crown Chargers Dwight Trojans East St. Louis Flyers Eastland-Pearl City Wildcatz Elk Grove Grenadiers Elgin Maroons Erie-Prophetstown Panthers Fenwick Friars Fieldcrest Knights Flanagan-Cornell/Woodland Forreston Cardinals Fremd Vikings Fulton Steamers Geneva Vikings Genoa-Kingston Cogs Glenbard East Rams Glenbard North Panthers Glenbard South Raiders Glenbard West Hitters Grant Bulldogs Grayslake Central Rams Grayslake North Knights Hall Red Devils Hampshire Whip-Purs Harvard Hornets Hersey Huskies Herscher Tigers Hiawatha Hawks Highland Park Giants Hinsdale Central Red Devils Hinsdale South Hornets Hoffman Estates Hawks Homewood Flossmoor Vikings Huntley Red Raiders IC Catholic Prep Knights Iroquois West Chargers Jacobs Golden Eagles Joliet Catholic Hilltoppers Joliet Central Steelmen Joliet West Tigers Johnsburg Skyhawks Kaneland Knights Kankakee Kays Lake Forest Scouts Lake Zurich Bears Lakes Eagles Larkin Royals LaSalle-Peru Cavaliers Lemont football Libertyville Wildcats Lincoln Way Central Knights Lincoln Way East Griffins Lincoln Way West Warriors Lockport Porters Loyola Academy Ramblers Lyons Township Lions Maine East Blue Demons Maine South Hawks Maine West Warriors Marengo Indians Marian Catholic Spartans Marian Central Catholic Hurricanes Marist RedHawks Marmion Academy Cadets Marquette Crusaders McHenry Warriors Metea Valley Mustangs Mendota Trojans Milford Bearcats Milledgeville Missiles Minooka Indians Momence Montini Broncos Morris Morrison Mustangs Morton Mustangs Mount Carmel Caravan Mundelein Mustangs Naperville Central Redhawks Naperville North Huskies Nazareth Academy Roadrunners Neuqua Valley Wildcats New Trier Trevians Newman Central Catholic Comets Niles Notre Dame Dons Oak Park River Forest Huskies Oregon Hawks Oswego Panthers Oswego East Wolves Ottawa Pirates Palatine Pirates Peotone Blue Devils Phillips Wildcats Plainfield Central Wildcats Plainfield East Bengals Plainfield North Tigers Plainfield South Cougars Plano Reapers Polo Marcos Prairie Ridge Wolves Princeton Tigers Prospect Knights Providence Catholic Celtics Reed-Custer Comets Richmond Burton Rockets Riverside Brookfield Bulldogs Rock Falls Rockets Rolling Meadows Mustangs Romeoville Spartans Round Lake Panthers Sandwich Indians Schaumburg Saxons Seneca Fighting Irish Simeon Wolverines St Anne Cardinals St Bede Bruins St Charles East Saints St Charles North North Stars St Edward Green Wave St Francis Spartans St Patrick Shamrocks St Rita Mustangs St Viator Lions Sterling Golden Warriors Stevenson Patriots Streator Bulldogs Sycamore Spartans Vernon Hills Cougars Warren Township Blue Devils Waubonsie Valley Warriors Wauconda Bulldogs West Aurora Blackhawks Westmont Sentinels Wheaton North Falcons Wheaton Academy Wheeling Wildcats Wheaton Warrenville South Tigers Willowbrook Warriors Wilmington Wildcats Woodstock Blue Streaks Woodstock North Thunder York Dukes Yorkville Foxes

Steve Soucie’s 2025 IHSA football preseason playoff projection

By Steve Soucie
Members of the Montini Catholic football team hoist the Class 3A State football championship trophy on Friday, Nov. 29, 2024 at Hancock Stadium in Normal.

Members of the Montini Catholic football team hoist the Class 3A State football championship trophy on in November 2024 at Hancock Stadium in Normal. (Scott Anderson)

History doesn’t always repeat itself.

But one thing remains pretty consistent in regards to the makeup of the teams that qualify for the IHSA playoffs: teams that qualify for the playoffs, tend to repeat the process more often than not.

Certainly there are always a few new teams that would break into the field on a year-to-year basis, but the percentages have always been fairly stable and you could almost always count about an 80% return rate from year-to-year.

In fact there were several seasons where that percentage pushed 85%.

But in the gap between the 2021 and 2022 seasons there was a crack in that facade, for the first time since the field expanded to 256 teams, as that percentage dipped below 75% at 73.82%.

Now, that level seems to be more of the norm as 73.4 percent of the field was repeat performers from 2023 to 2024.

One thing, however, has remained fairly constant throughout: the teams that find themselves at or near the top of each classification remains extremely consistent.

For years, I’ve used what I call a three-year win model to project what the field will look like come October, as well as to try to identify where the classifications breaks will fall. It isn’t a precise science, especially with the percentage of repeat teams continuing to fall, but it does provide a pretty fair estimation of where classification breaks will fall.

While the win model hasn’t done as solid of a job of predicting the field as a whole, it continued to do a very solid job of projecting the classification lines and where they might break.

This is specifically a more interesting project this season as the IHSA’s new policies for multipliers and the return to a one-year enrollment plan provided some rather pertinent shifts to what classifications schools might land in.

The model forecasts the 256 teams most likely to reach the postseason based on the performance of the past three full seasons.

NO FORECASTING of what the upcoming season is applied to this projection. Don’t worry, those will come soon after opening night.

The only tool that is used is establishing the three-year win patterns of every program in the state.

Teams that earned at least 15 wins over the past three seasons were in. In addition, six teams that amassed 14 wins over that time frame also needed to be added to the field so the projection could reach the full 256 teams. Tiebreakers were used to decide which 14-win teams were included, based on more recent success.

Here’s where the model has the classification breaks landing:

ClassProjected Enrollment Range
Class 1Aup to 301.95
Class 2A302-421
Class 3A424-547.8
Class 4A557.7-920.7
Class 5A988-1348
Class 6A1364-1785
Class 7A1800-2283
Class 8A2311 and up

After establishing the 256-team field, one can put together prospective brackets based on the previous success levels of those programs.

Here are the most successful programs inside the three-year model and which classifications those schools are expected to land in:

TeamTotal WinsProjected Class
Lena-Winslow401A
Loyola398A
Camp Point Central381A
Lincoln-Way East388A
Mount Carmel388A
Maroa-Forsyth362A
East St. Louis366A*
Byron353A
Wilmington343A
York348A
Batavia336A
Johnston City322A
Rochester324A
Sycamore325A
Several tied with31

Here’s a class-by-class breakdown of what looks interesting by using the projected classification break lines:

Class 1A

Enrollment range: Up to 301.95.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Newman Central Catholic, Arthur, Rushville, Morrison, Arthur.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Momence, Chicago Marshall, Mendon Unity, Johnston City, Tri-Valley.

Class 2A

Enrollment range: 302-421

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Newman Central Catholic, Arthur, Rushville, Morrison, Arthur.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Momence, Chicago Marshall, Mendon Unity, Johnston City, Tri-Valley.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Peotone, White County, Mercer County, Pana, Reed-Custer.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Stillman Valley, New Berlin, Fairfield.

Class 3A

Enrollment range: 424-547.8

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Peotone, White County, Mercer County, Pana, Reed-Custer.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Stillman Valley, New Berlin, Fairfield.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Belleville Althoff, IC Catholic, Richmond-Burton, Bloomington Central Catholic, Dyett.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Breese Mater Dei, Murphysboro, Kewanee, South Shore, Benton.

Class 4A

Enrollment range: 557.7-920.7

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Belleville Althoff, IC Catholic, Richmond-Burton, Bloomington Central Catholic, Dyett.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Breese Mater Dei, Murphysboro, Kewanee, South Shore, Benton.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Rockford Boylan, Montini, Sacred Heart Griffin, Metamora, Evergreen Park.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Ridgewood, Corliss, Normal University, Hillcrest, Lindblom.

Class 5A

Enrollment range: 988-1348

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Rockford Boylan, Montini, Sacred Heart Griffin, Metamora, Evergreen Park.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Ridgewood, Corliss, Normal University, Hillcrest, Lindblom.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Lake Forest, Champaign Centennial, Oak Forest, Grayslake Central, Cary-Grove.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Bloomington, Kankakee, Dunlap, Washington, Chatham Glenwood.

Class 6A

Enrollment range: 1364-1785

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Lake Forest, Champaign Centennial, Oak Forest, Grayslake Central, Cary-Grove.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Bloomington, Kankakee, Dunlap, Washington, Chatham Glenwood.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Quincy, Lake Zurich, Batavia, Libertyville, Grant.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Hononegah, St. Laurence, Argo, Maine West, Carmel.

Class 7A

Enrollment range: 1800-2283

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Quincy, Lake Zurich, Batavia, Libertyville, Grant.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Hononegah, St. Laurence, Argo, Maine West, Carmel.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Andrew, DePaul Prep, Yorkville, Hoffman Estates.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard East, Plainfield South, Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Belleville East.

Class 8A

Enrollment range: 2311 and up

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Andrew, DePaul Prep, Yorkville, Hoffman Estates.

Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard East, Plainfield South, Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Belleville East.