Hub Arkush: Key matchups, players to watch and more for Bears vs. Packers

If we get the two teams we last saw – Bears vs. Cardinals and Packers vs. Rams before the Packers’ bye – and Aaron Rodgers is under center, the Bears have little chance of even making it a game let alone upsetting the Packers on Sunday night.

But even coming off a bye week, neither Rodgers or offensive tackle David Bakhtiari practiced all week for Green Bay. Bakhtiari, linebacker ZaDarius Smith’s and cornerback Jaire Alexander all returning for Sunday night in any fashion, let alone at full speed, all seem unlikely.

[ Bears vs. Packers: 5 things to watch in the Week 14 matchup ]

As for Rodgers, don’t get too pumped, Bears fans. Your self-appointed team owner most likely just believed two full weeks of rest for his injured toe would give him the best shot at being as close to 100% as he can be the rest of the way.

There are also signals the Bears will be as healthy as they’ve been for a while with Allen Robinson, Akiem Hicks and Justin Fields ready to go, and don’t discount the impact a supreme effort could have for 53 guys who know how badly they’ve disappointed to date.

The Bears are 12 ½-point underdogs and the over/under is 44.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

RBs David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert and Bears O-line vs. Packers run ‘D’

Montgomery has become the leader of the Bears offense in Robinson’s and Fields’ absence, and running the football is the one thing the Bears offense does well.

Green Bay’s run ‘D’ is much improved at eighth overall, but the Packers are just 17th in average gain per run allowed and it is still the best way to attack this defense.

Nose tackle Kenny Clark has become a game-wrecker and is the Packers best defensive player, neutralize him and you have a chance.

COACHING DECISION TO WATCH

Is Matt Nagy willing to ground his areal attack and fully commit to the run?

The Bears have one formula for success here: totally commit to the ground game, rush for a 140 yards or more, steadily move the chains, own the clock to keep Rodgers off the field, score touchdowns in the red zone and they could earn a TKO.

We’re not talking a Bill Belichick-style three pass attempts. The Bears can go for a few explosives with some play action, but they will not win here trying to run the “Kansas City offense.”

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Packers RBs Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, LBs De’Vondre Campbell, Rashan Gary, CB Eric Stokes

It goes without saying all eyes are on Rodgers, Davante Adams and Clark whenever they’re on the field.

But Jones’ knee is worth keeping an eye on as he’s the other weapon folks keep assuming Rodgers doesn’t have, and Dillon has become as good a body puncher as you’ll find in the league.

Campbell is now the leader of this defense and one of the best free agency signings of the year. Gary is still inconsistent but has become a playmaker, and Stokes has been their best corner in Alexander’s absence.

THE X-FACTORS

Who plays and how much will they contribute?

Rodgers, Bakhtiari, Smith, Alexander, Randal Cobb are all questionable for the Packers. Robinson, Hicks and Marquise Goodwin could return for the Bears.

[ Bears injury report: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery both expected to play Sunday ]

WILD-CARD PLAYERS WHO COULD SURPRISE

Packers WR Allen Lazard, TE Josiah Duguara, CB Rasul Douglas, DT Kingsley Keke; Bears WRs Jakeem Grant, Damiere Byrd, CB Artie Burns

Lazard and Duguara are receivers that haven’t become what the Pack hoped for yet, but they do make occasional big play. Douglas has been a key in-season addition since Alexander went down, and Keke is an occasionally sneaky pass rusher.

Bears quarterbacks have been looking a bit more for Byrd. Grant has been an explosive waiting to go off since he got to Chicago. Burns is a former first-round draft choice that Rodgers is certain to be looking for, which will give him Burns chances to make plays.

THE FINAL WORD

Packers 27, Bears 20

Whatever his failings may or may not be, Nagy has clearly not lost his locker room and this is probably his guys’ last, best chance to dramatically impact the narrative for him and themselves. And they will be healthier. But even in a perfect world for the Bears, with Rodgers under center, the most realistic hope is they keep it a game.