Were those threats idle?

Take a trip on the Eye On Illinois time machine to September 2020, a few weeks before voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would’ve upended the current structure wherein the state income tax is a flat percentage on all income rather than a graduated system, like the federal government, in which people who earn more are taxed at a greater rate.

The issue is freshly relevant following Monday’s Capitol News Illinois headline: “Despite mounting budget pressure, graduated income tax remains political longshot; Gov. JB Pritzker backs the idea in principle but says it’s not a 2026 priority.”

Anyone who lived in Illinois during that campaign cycle remembers the advertising barrage – specifically glossy mailers – and it’s a safe assumption none but those who work in promotions and printing are eager for another round.

Back then, I wrote about a piece from the Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike Amendment. The front featured the Capitol building and an inconsistently capitalized lie: “Constitutional Amendment gives Springfield Politicians new power to raise income taxes on Anyone.”

That unsourced conjecture attempted the political argument that tax brackets make it easier for lawmakers to raise rates on smaller population segments while avoiding political blowback, or to lower rates to curry political favor. But really, the actual legal authority to change the tax rate was already established.

The mailer asserted “the day after the election, the politicians could hike taxes on anyone, including middle-income families.” That was already possible, which is why Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton was able to warn voters to prepare for – should the amendment fail – lawmakers being “forced to consider” a 20% hike in the flat income tax rate, from 4.95% to 5.94%.

As the CNI story detailed (tinyurl.com/CNIgraduated), despite voters rejecting the amendment, the tax rate hasn’t changed.

“With boosts from federal stimulus funds and increased tax receipts spurred by post-pandemic economic activity, Pritzker and state lawmakers have been able to enact balanced budgets in all but one of his seven years in office, with COVID-impacted 2020 the outlier. And the state has paid off a backlog of bills that had ballooned to more than $16 billion during the height of a state budget impasse a decade ago. But that boon is over. The past two years, lawmakers had to enact a series of tax hikes and other revenue enhancements to keep the budget balanced.”

The threats weren’t entirely idle. We’ll never know how the amendment would’ve actually affected Illinois’ budgets or a reality without pandemic relief funds. The tax bracket plan isn’t totally dead. Flat tax hikes are always possible, albeit politically unpopular.

Memory helps balance the ease of campaign threats against the practical difficulty of governance.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.