Big holiday season? La Salle County retailers think so

Schoolchildren weren’t too happy with the Halloween cold snap but retailers were tickled to see the mercury drop. The early cold might spur early Christmas shopping.

Local retailers are counting down the days until the holiday shopping season begins and the countdown arguably began with the recent cold snap. When Old Man Winter makes an early appearance, off go the letters to Santa asking for warm clothes and boots. Most retailers interviewed were cautiously optimistic of a strong holiday season.

“The year has been going well so far and I anticipate a really strong Christmas,” said Denise Bernabei, co-owner of Sasso Jewelry & Gifts in La Salle. “Business-wise, I’m very positive about the fourth quarter.”

Several of her colleagues agreed, but with a catch: inflation could have the last word on whether the 2023 holiday season ushers in record spending.

Richard Vlastnik is a partner of Vlastnik’s Menswear in Peru and he sees signs of a busy fourth quarter – “Business has been fairly brisk the last month or so” – but he’s concerned with rising costs. The U.S. Labor Department reported an inflation of rate of 3.7% for the 12-month period ending Sept. 30.

“People are spending more but I also think they’re being a little more cautious,” Vlastnik said. “Inflation has definitely been an issue and people are watching their pennies.”

Jeremy Reed owns That Guy’s Secret in downtown La Salle and he acknowledged there are “conflicting signals” that give him and other retailers pause. Throw in upheaval in the Middle East, he said, and there are good reasons to wonder about consumer behavior as the year draws to a close.

That said, Reed believes Illinois Valley shoppers prefer to spend money locally and he thinks that trend is likely to prevail as the holidays approach.

“Overall, I still feel pretty strongly about our fourth quarter position,” Reed said. “I feel our region bucks the national trends. I feel our region tends to be more consistent.”

If retailers sound hesitant then it’s because there isn’t much reliable data to work with. Local retail data are inflated since Illinois began allotting cities a share of online sales, which means the monthly totals no longer give much guidance on how brick-and-mortar businesses are performing.

There are mixed signals nationally, as well. Steve Witek, a certified financial professional at Witek Wealth Management in La Salle, said economists have for some time warned the economy is cooling off and that the United States is poised for a recession – even the nation posted 4.9% growth in gross domestic product as well as strong retail reports.

“My guess is this holiday season will be business as usual and the retailers will do well,” Witek said.

It’s a good bet considering consumers have largely reverted to past spending habits since the pandemic ended. Travel, for example, was stymied during COVID-19 restrictions but has since exploded with the cessation of mask mandates and vaccination requirements.

“People are traveling,” said Anna Lijewski, owner of La Salle County Travel in La Salle, citing a surge in bookings to Europe, Alaska and, especially Mexico and the Caribbean. “2023 was probably the best year I’ve had in a long, long time and 2024 is looking just as good.”

One residual issue from the pandemic is supply-chain woes. Vlastnik said the availability of merchandise is night-and-day improved from the 2020, but manufacturers still are grappling with logistical hiccups.

Carhartt, for instance, has enjoyed surging popularity overseas and had trouble keeping pace with demand. Vlastnik said there’s a case to be made for shopping early in case supply-chain problems prevent your retailer from quickly refilling the racks and shelves.

“If you see something you want, you might want to grab it,” he said. “It might not be possible to get it later. And that’s not just us.”