Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields has been limited from a production standpoint through three weeks, but there is reason to believe that this week’s battle could be his toughest test yet.
The numbers have been underwhelming during a 2-1 start for Fields, who is 23-of-45 for 297 yards to go along with two touchdowns and four interceptions. Yet he has been even worse against the blitz, where Fields is 1-of-9 for 18 yards, one touchdown and an interception this season via premium stats at Pro Football Focus.
As fate would have it, Fields and the Bears will travel to the New York Giants in a battle between a pair of unexpected 2-1 teams. Only two teams in the entire league are blitzing more than the Giants in their first year with Don “Wink” Martindale as the team’s defensive coordinator.
On paper, it doesn’t seem like the matchup to bring the best out of Fields. But how much stock should we put into such a small-sample size of dropbacks? And is there a betting angle for us to attack within this matchup?
Let’s find out.
This actually won’t be Fields’ first time facing a Martindale defense. Fields started as a rookie against the Ravens in Week 11 of last year. Against the Ravens, Fields went 4-of-11 for 79 yards and was sacked twice, though he only played 30 snaps before exiting the game with an injury. Fields didn’t return to action until Week 14.
Looking back at that game, the thing that stood out to me was that Fields recorded four rushing attempts for 23 yards in limited action against the Ravens. He has demonstrated the ability to take off and run when feeling the pocket collapse, and I do think there is something to that.
According to PFF’s premiums stats, Fields has “scrambled” eight different times on 31 dropbacks when under pressure this year. He did so 27 times on 151 dropbacks during his rookie season.
Fields might honestly lean on that a bit too much at times, as J.T. O’Sullivan highlighted in his latest video breakdown on the second-year signal caller. But I do think the Bears would be wise to utilize his athleticism in this week’s matchup.
That’s why I’m betting on Fields’ rushing yardage prop ahead of Sunday’s matchup. It is currently priced at 35.5 rushing yards at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. The over is juiced to -121, while the under is listed at -113.
In addition, if you like Fields to go over his rushing yardage prop, make sure to take advantage of our special boost at Caesars Sportsbook before Sunday.
You can get +300 odds on Fields to finish with at least one passing touchdown and over 49.5 rushing against the Giants — the team that traded with the Bears to select Fields with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. All you have to do is log into your Caesars Sportsbook app and locate this parlay under the boosts tab.
Fields has finished with at least eight rushing attempts in every game this season, turning 27 total attempts into 95 yards. He posted 47 rushing yards in last week’s 23-20 win over the Houston Texans, thanks in large part to that big run.
I’ll be betting on Fields to make at least one special play in a game that I ultimately think the Bears have a legitimate shot of winning.
Pick: Over 35.5 rushing yards for Justin Fields (-121)
Justin Fields player props
The rest of the player prop markets for Justin Fields at Caesars Sportsbook as of Friday morning.
- Over 0.5 (-174)
- Under 0.5 (+126)
- Over 147.5 (-125)
- Under 147.5 (-109)
- Over 0.5 (-160)
- Under 0.5 (+116)
Longest passing completion
- Over 29.5 (-111)
- Under 29.5 (-123)