Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos: 2 player props for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup

The first NFL Sunday was a smashing success, both for the Chicago Bears and myself. Not only did the Bears deliver the biggest upset of the day, but I was able to cash enough tickets to finish with a profit in Week 1.

But I am fully prepared to test fate by playing an underwhelming Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. This is the problem with NFL betting, because we are always so tempted to have action on the primetime games.

I plan to risk just half a unit on the Russell Wilson homecoming tonight. Wilson, who played 10 years for the Seahawks and led them to back-to-back Super Bowl berths (one win), is set to make his debut for the Broncos. And it just so happens to take place in Seattle. Well done, NFL.

Yet my action will be on the other starting quarterback in this game. I’m fading Geno Smith with a pair of plays in the prop market. Both of these bets were placed at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports.

The first bet is on under 30.5 passing attempts for Smith, which is currently priced at -121 at Caesars Sportsbook. The second wager was on under 18.5 completions (-120) for Smith in tonight’s tilt against the Denver defense.

It goes without saying, but obviously these two picks are correlated to a certain extent. My general assessment of this game is that it will be slower and low-scoring, reducing the amount of possession and chances for either team to really go that crazy on offense.

More importantly, I believe Wilson covered up a lot of flaws for the Seahawks over the years. This season could expose that, especially on the offensive end. We know Pete Carroll wants to run the ball, and it doesn’t seem he’s going to ask Smith to do too much against the Broncos.

Smith appeared in four games (three starts) last year for the Seahawks when Wilson was sidelined with an injury. The Seahawks went 1-3 over that span, but here is a breakdown of what Smith offered them at quarterback:

As the table illustrates, Smith would have hit the over on the completions prop twice and the over on his attempts just once during that stretch. But, again, I’m banking on this being a slower-paced game with the Broncos adjusting to a new offense and the Seahawks getting used to life without Wilson.

That is not a terrible guess after the under on the point total went 10-5 in Week 1, which essentially looked like an extension of the preseason for offenses. With the Broncos favored by 6.5 points and the total currently listed at just 44, the prop market is what has my attention ahead of kickoff.