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Analysis

Hub Arkush: Key matchups, players to watch and more for Super Bowl LV

Obviously, the lead story here is the GOAT, Tom Brady, vs. the heir apparent, Patrick Mahomes.

But reality is they never will be on the field at the same time, and whichever one gains the edge in their performances won’t necessarily dictate the outcome of the game.

These two met 10 weeks ago in the same stadium with the Chiefs coming out on top, 27-24, but the game was not as close as the score suggests.

The Chiefs were up, 27-10, going into the fourth quarter before the Bucs added a touchdown two minutes into the fourth quarter and another with four minutes to play but never got the ball back again after that.

They combined for 960 yards of offense, including 543 from the Chiefs. Mahomes threw for 462 yards, and Brady 345. Tyreek Hill hauled in 13 catches for 269 yards and three TDs. Rob Gronkowski led the Bucs with six catches for 106 yards. Both teams ran the ball well – Kansas City had 20 carries at a 4.4-yard average; the Bucs had 13 carries for 5.8 yards per attempt – and Brady threw two third-quarter interceptions, while Mahomes lost one fumble.

It was ugly a good part of the time, as the Chiefs committed 10 penalties for 82 yards, and the Bucs gave back eight for 57 yards.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Bucs right guard Aaron Stinnie vs. defensive tackle Chris Jones; Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie vs. defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh; Chiefs left tackle Mike Remmers vs. outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett

Interior pressure on Mahomes and Brady with edge rushers sealing the outside, forcing the All-Pro QBs to throw in traffic all day, could dictate the outcome of the game.

Stinnie is the weak link on the Bucs’ line, and Jones, although coming off a relatively quiet season, is the Chiefs’ second-best defensive player after Tyrann Mathieu. With Frank Clark, the Chiefs’ only other dangerous pass rusher, look for the Bucs to give Stinnie help.

Suh is one of the best big-game players in the league, and at 34, his second crack at a ring very well could be his last, and he knows it.

Wylie actually is the starting right guard forced to slide out to tackle with regular starter Mike Remmers flipping over to the left side because of an injury to Eric Fischer.

Remmers is average at best on the right side, and in Shaq Barrett he’ll see one of the game’s best pass rushers the past two seasons. Barrett has been a force in the playoffs.

COACHING DECISION TO WATCH

What will be Tampa Bay’s plan for wide receiver Tyreek Hill?

Hill is one of the most dangerous players in the game, and in the last meeting he rendered cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Ross Cockrell helpless. The status of safeties Antonine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead is uncertain because of ankle and shoulder injuries, so even if they go, their ability to help could be minimized. What is Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to do?

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tampa Bay running back Leonard Fournette and linebacker Devin White; Kansas City wide receivers Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed

Brady, Evans, Gronk, Mahomes, Hill, Travis Kelce and Mathieu are too obvious for this category.

Fournette has come on in recent weeks and appears to have supplanted Ronald Jones as the No. 1 back for the Bucs, and Devin White is a game-changing play waiting to happen.

With Sammy Watkins’ status uncertain, either Hardman or Robinson becomes Mahomes’ third option after Hill and Kelce, and how Sneed stacks up against Evans and fellow wide receiver Chris Godwin could be key.

THE X-FACTOR

Chiefs running backs

Darrel Williams didn’t play against the Bucs last time and is the Chiefs’ No. 3 back, but with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell nicked up, Williams has been the horse in the playoffs and has been effective.

But if all three are sound and available, Andy Reid could show the Bucs a totally different attack than they saw 10 weeks ago.

WILD-CARD PLAYERS WHO COULD SURPRISE

Chiefs safety Daniel Sorenson and Bucs tight end Cameron Brate

Sorenson is not the best-known Chief, but he’s been a silent assassin this season alongside Mathieu. He leads the team in tackles and has three picks, one returned for a touchdown. He will be a key in the run defense and against Gronk.

Brate is battling a back injury and was just added to the injury report Thursday, but he’s been on fire in the playoffs with 11 catches for 149 yards and a score. He is a dangerous red zone threat if he’s on the field.

THE FINAL WORD

Bucs 30, Chiefs 27

There’s really no right answer here, as either of these teams is capable of winning, and either is capable of dominating the other, but almost no one dominates the Chiefs’ offense, and the Bucs’ defense can dictate tempo against anyone.

In the end, I’m just going with my gut, and I love the way the Bucs have been playing and come into this game. We know how near impossible it is to win two of these games in a row, and I will never, ever bet against the reigning GOAT, especially in the Super Bowl.

Hub Arkush

Hub Arkush

Hub Arkush was the Senior Bears Analyst for Shaw Local News Network and ShawLocal.com.