For the first time in a while, the Chicago Bears will play meaningful football games late into the season.

Chicago enters Week 16 at 10-4, the first time the team has won 10 games in a season since 2018, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Bears also lead the NFC North by half a game, ahead of the Green Bay Packers.

“We’re looking forward to playing meaningful football here this late in December,” Bears head coach Ben Johnson said. “I think that’s a good thing for our football team. I think that’s a good thing for the city. It’s really what we were all expecting going into the season. And so it’s a good thing to come to light, just like it has.”

But a lot can change in a packed NFC race over the next three weeks. Most years 10 wins would be enough to get into the playoffs. But 10 or even 11 wins might not be enough this season.

The Bears end the season with one of the NFL’s tougher schedules. They’ll start things off against the Packers (9-4-1) on Saturday before playing the San Francisco 49ers (10-4) and the Detroit Lions (8-6). Chicago can qualify for the playoffs this weekend by either beating the Packers and having the Detroit Lions lose or tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Bears tie with the Packers and the Lions lose.

Chicago can the end season with four different records. Here are the Bears’ playoff outlook based on how they finish the year.

13-4

This is obviously the best-case scenario. It might also be the most unlikely given how difficult the Bears’ schedule is to finish the year.

Chicago would secure itself a top-two seed in the NFC if it won all three of its remaining games. The Bears would win the North, host a playoff game and couldn’t finish below the No. 2 seed. It would be the first time since the 2010 season that they would earn a top-two seed in the NFC playoffs.

The Bears would need some help in order to get the No. 1 even with three more wins. The Los Angeles Rams (11-3) and the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) share the NFC’s best record and will play against each other on Thursday. Chicago would need the winner of that game to lose one of its final two games in order to enter the conversation for the top spot.

That scenario might be tough to envision, though. ESPN gave the Bears a 4% chance to earn the No. 1 seed as of Tuesday.

12-5

Two more wins would have the Bears feeling pretty comfortable with their chances to make the playoffs. Who those wins come against could play a major role in how comfortable they are.

If the Bears had to choose which two they’d want to win, it’d likely be against their division rivals. Beating both the Packers and Lions would guarantee the Bears the North title, a top-four seed and a home playoff game. They could also still earn the No. 2 seed depending if the Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) lost another game.

The other five-loss paths make things a little bit interesting. If the Bears lose to the Lions they would still have a game advantage over Detroit even if it wins all three of its final games. A loss to the Packers would hurt the Bears’ North chances but wouldn’t kill their playoff hopes either.

There is a theoretical world where the Bears could miss the playoffs because of tiebreakers if the Rams, Seahawks, Packers and 49ers all reach 12 wins. But a lot would need to happen over three weeks in order for that to occur.

11-6

The goal for the Bears for much of the season has been to get to 11 wins. Chicago has a good chance to make the playoffs at 11 wins, though it’s not a guarantee.

Let’s start with the positive. The most obvious path for the Bears to make the playoffs with one more win is to win their season finale against the Lions. Chicago will eliminate Detroit from playoff contention and secure its spot in the playoffs by winning that game.

Everything else starts to get a little bit more confusing after that since so much will depend on what happens with the other NFC playoff contenders. If the Bears beat the Packers but Green Bay wins out after that, Chicago will fall half a game behind in the North race. But the Bears would still have a spot in the playoffs unless the Lions win their final three games of the season.

The real strong chance that the Bears could miss the playoffs at 11 wins is if the perfect storms hits. If the Lions, Packers, 49ers and Rams/Seahawks reach at least 11 wins, that could lead to tiebreakers deciding the Bears’ fate.

10-7

Losing the remaining three games of the season would put the Bears in a improbable spot to make the playoffs.

Not only would the Bears likely not keep up with the rest of the other NFC contenders, but it would also help three teams that they’re battling for playoff spots. Wins by the Packers, 49ers and the Lions would jump them all over the Bears and likely leave the them out of the playoffs.

“We’re looking forward to playing meaningful football here this late in December. I think that’s a good thing for our football team. I think that’s a good thing for the city. It’s really what we were all expecting going into the season. And so it’s a good thing to come to light, just like it has.”

—  Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears head coach

It’s not an impossible task, though. Chicago could still hold off the Lions even with a loss to them to end the regular season. The Bears would need Detroit to lose two of its final three games in order for that to happen. The Lions play the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens before ending with the Bears.

But there’s a reason why Johnson and the Bears haven’t been satisfied with getting to 10 wins in his first season. There’s a good chance 10 would leave them wondering all offseason about what could’ve been.