2022 NFL draft: Hub Arkush’s first-round mock draft

What is the actual value of mock drafts? It’s matching players as closely as you can with where they’ll actually be chosen relative to other prospects on the board.

There will be multiple trades made throughout the draft, and you can throw out your mock as far as matching players to teams once the first one happens because it will change who’s gone and who’s available.

But after months of watching tape, studying stats and needs, along with working the phones with anyone who wants or is willing to talk, here’s my best guess at who goes in the first round and where they fall.

Team	Player, College	Position	Analysis
1. Jaguars	Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan	DE	Top 5 ceiling, draft’s highest floor makes him No. 1 overall.
2. Lions	Travon Walker, Georgia,	DE	Maybe draft’s highest ceiling, but higher climb than many to get there.
3. Texans	Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati	CB	Lovie Smith loves big corners. Texans need playmakers and some extra sauce.
4. Jets	Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon	EDGE	Robert Saleh needs go-to guy for his defense, Thibodeaux has the traits.
5. Giants	Evan Neal, Alabama	OT	Giants get their franchise left tackle for the next decade.
6. Panthers	Ickey Okwonu, N.C. State.	OT	Panthers are surprised to find local kid some like more than Neal still on board.
7. Giants	Jermaine Johnson II, Florida St.	EDGE	Giants badly need pass rush. Johnson’s a legit Top 10 pick.
8. Falcons	Garrett Wilson, Ohio St.	WR	With Marcus Mariota in for Matt Ryan, Falcons need weapons more than ever, Wilson top receiver in the class.
9. Seahawks	Malik Willis, Liberty	QB	My first big surprise, but think about it: the best QB prospect in draft built to run same scheme as Wilson.
10. Jets	Derek Stingley Jr., LSU	CB	This is the steal of the draft if he’s the player he was in 2019.
11. Commanders	Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame	S	Hamilton is the most exciting athlete in this class. Ron Rivera will know what to do with him.
12. Vikings	Jordan Davis, Georgia	DT	He may out-snack Snacks Harrison, a true one-man blockade.
13. Texans	Treylon Burks, Arkansas	WR	If Davis Mills is going to be the answer, he needs a special target.
14. Ravens	George Karlaftis, Purdue	EDGE	This would have been David Ojabo until Achilles tear. Karlaftis is next man up.
15. Eagles	Chris Olave, Ohio St.	WR	Wideout has been Eagles’ biggest need for a while. Olave’s potential is through the roof.
16. Saints	Charles Cross, Mississippi St.	OT	Terron Armstead may be the biggest loss any team in the league suffered in free agency.
17. Chargers	Devonte Wyatt, Georgia	DT	Stick him between Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and talk about border walls!
18. Eagles	Boye Mafe, Minnesota	EDGE	No. 18 could be a little rich for Mafe, but Eagles need pressure. I’m hearing they like this kid a lot.
19. Saints	Jameson Williams, Alabama	WR	He isn’t first WR off the board only because of ACL injury. Saints can afford to wait an extra month or two.
20. Steelers	Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh	QB	Pickett isn’t the 20th best prospect in draft, but c’mon, this just makes too much sense.
21. Patriots	Devin Lloyd, Utah	LB	Belichick builds defenses around LBs like this and size separates him from Nakobe Dean.
22. Packers	Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan	OT	There’s a hole at right tackle in Green Bay, and Raimann could eventually replace Bakhtiari on the left.
23. Cardinals	Trent McDuffie, Washington	CB	Combo best player available and Cardinals’ greatest need.
24. Cowboys	Kenyon Green, Texas A&M	OG	This is a little high for Green, but he’s best guard in draft. Cowboys have a big hole there.
25. Bills	Breece Hall, Iowa St.	RB	Show me who’s left that can have bigger impact on Bills team looking to win right now?
26. Titans	Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa	C	Mostly best player available along with a moderate to significant need.
27. Buccaneers	Zion Johnson, Boston College	OG	B.C. offensive linemen always project well, and Tom Brady has to stay clean.
28. Packers	Drake London, USC	WR	The Swiss Army knife Aaron Rodgers has been dreaming about.
29. Chiefs	Daxton Hill, Michigan	S	Could be the new “Honey Badger,” only bigger and even more athletic.
30. Chiefs	George Pickens, Georgia	WR	He’s a project, but the kind of project Chiefs have excelled at under Andy Reid.
31. Bengals	Kaiir Elam, Florida	CB	Another best player available who happens to fit a real need.
32. Lions	Nakobe Dean, Georgia	LB	Dean is one of my Top 15 prospects in this draft. Lions stunned he’s here and can’t pass him up.