Letter: COVID-19 impact study results

More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the most comprehensive comparative study was published last week as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The authors are University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan and Stephen Moore and Phil Kerpen of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. They compared COVID-19 outcomes in the 50 states and District of Columbia based on three variables: the economy, education and mortality. The authors measured mortality adjusted for a state population’s age and the prevalence of obesity and diabetes (leading co-morbidities for COVID-19 deaths). Education was measured by lost school days in school.

The authors used regression analysis for the economy adjusted for state industry composition.

The top 10 states were Utah +3.64, Gov. Gary Herbert (R); Nebraska +3.25, Gov. Pete Ricketts (R); Vermont +3.24, Gov. Phil Scott (R); Montana +2.29, Gov. Steve Bullock (D); South Dakota +2.08, Gov. Kristi Noem (R); Florida +2.04, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R); New Hampshire + 1.99, Gov. Chris Sununu (R); Maine +1.95, Gov. Janet Mills (D); Arkansas +1.88, Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R); Idaho +1.63, Gov. Brad Little (R).

The bottom 9 states including D.C. were New Jersey -3.61, Gov. Phil Murphy (D); District of Columbia -3.30; New York -2.94, Govs. Andrew Cuomo/Kathy Hochui (D); New Mexico -2.61, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D); California -2.51 Gov. Gavin Newsom (D); Illinois -2.28, Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D); Maryland -1.64, Gov. Larry Hogan (R); Nevada -1.57, Gov. Steve Sisolak (D); Connecticut -1.51, Gov. Ned Lamont (D); Pennsylvania -1.45, Gov. Tom Wolf (D).

The bottom nine states and D.C. were severe lockdown states that suffered much more on overall social well-being in return for relatively little comparative benefit on health. Their economies are for the most part still behind most others in recovering from the pandemic. Hawaii, came closest of any to imposing a version of Communist China’s zero COVID-19 policy as it shut down travel to the islands. The result was a stellar performance on mortality — first, by a big margin. However, it finished 50th in economic performance and 46th in education. Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey did not save lives but he did savage the economy and punish students as he followed the teachers unions’ demands on school closures to rank 41st on education.

Thank the U.S. Constitution for our federalist system of government. The outcomes would have been much worse had Washington imposed a single national policy as dictated by the federal bureaucracy. Also note that all of the bottom nine states with Maryland’s Hogan, one exception, have Democrat governors.

Robert Gebhardt

Johnsburg