What are the chances of a white Christmas in northern Illinois? Historically, nearly 4 in 10, as bitter cold awaits this holiday

As forecasted scattered snow showers increase this week in northern Illinois, the chances of a white Christmas grow, too, although bitter cold awaits, said a National Weather Service meteorologist.

The forecast for Christmas weekend shows a significant dip in temperatures, with highs expected to reach single digits and lows overnight Friday and into Christmas Eve Saturday hitting subzero throughout northern Illinois, according to the National Weather Service.

Cold winds and temperatures will remain throughout the week, as Sunday night into Monday is expected to bring temperatures down to around 10, with wind gusts of about 15 mph throughout the region.

While significant accumulation isn’t expected Christmas Day on Sunday, the chances of more scattered snow showers this week are expected into Friday.

“We haven’t had a white Christmas in some years, since 2017 or 2018,” said NWS meteorologist Brett Borchardt, stationed at the service’s Romeoville office. “As we head into a cold pattern, there’s a strong signal that the week of Christmas is going to be pretty cold. We don’t see any signal for a true snowstorm yet, but the longer we’re cold the higher chances will be that we’re going to get hit.”

Snow on Christmas isn’t exactly an annual event, however holiday wishes that may abound.

The snowiest Christmas Day the greater Chicago area has seen was in 1950, with 5.1 inches of snow, Borchardt said.

In 1982, the warmest Christmas was recorded in Chicago at 64 degrees. The coldest came a year later, with minus 5 degrees in 1983, Borchardt said.

The NWS has charted snow on Christmas as far back as 1885, Borchardt said. Its records show a white Christmas only about 42% of the time.

“That’s 4 in 10 Christmases, typically,” Borchardt said.

Alhough climate change could have an impact on the chances of snowy winters, Borchardt said the weather service notes patterns more on a long-term scale.

“When it comes to climate change, we’re looking at patterns on the scale of decades,” he said. “So even 40, 50 or even hundreds of years. Short-term patterns without a white Christmas, it might seem like it’s here to stay.”