EYE ON ILLINOIS: As Brady retires, a look back at what might have been

Thirty-one thousand eight hundred thirty-four.

In population, it’d be Illinois’ 60th largest city, between St. Charles and Mundelein. In dollars it’s almost the minimum salary for a public school teacher (lawmakers raised it from $9,000 in 2019). In NBA points, it’s in in sixth place between Michael Jordan and Dirk Nowitzki. It’s two months worth of flights in and out of Midway, or two weeks at O’Hare.

But 31,894 is precisely the margin in the 2010 gubernatorial election separating winner Pat Quinn, the Democratic accidental incumbent, and runner-up Bill Brady, a Bloomington Republican. That figure is relevant again because of Brady’s Dec. 31 retirement from the Illinois Senate, ending a legislative career that began in the House in 1993.

All 59 Senate seats are in play in 2022, following the redistricting process. Even though Brady is just 59 his decision isn’t a stunner in light of three failed gubernatorial bids and his effective demotion as Senate minority leader after the November election.

Brady’s political life is by no means over, but why remain in the General Assembly amid leadership changes, widening deficits, an ongoing pandemic and a nationwide battle for the soul of the Republican Party?

Others can speculate about Brady’s future. I’d rather flip back to 2010 and think how Illinois might be different had Brady gotten over the hump. Quinn was only governor because Rod Blagojevich was impeached and removed the prior year. He barely reached the general election, beating Comptroller Dan Hynes in a primary by 8,372 votes — the percentage split was 50.46-49.54. Brady got 20.26% in his primary, edging fellow Sen. Kirk Dillard by only 193 votes.

In the general, Quinn won four counties, but got 1,745,219 votes, 46.79%. Brady carried the other 98 counties on his way to 1,713,385 votes, 45.94%. Their margin was smaller than the vote totals of three other candidates: independent Scott Lee Cohen (135,705); the Green Party’s Rich Whitney (100,756) and Libertarian Lex Green (34,681).

With Brady as governor, would there have been an income tax increase in 2011? Would he have, as Quinn did in 2012, canceled AFSCME contracts in a failed attempt to plug gaping budget holes? Would we have made progress on pension reform? Would Brady have signed off on abolishing capital punishment and legalizing same-sex marriage? Which Democrat would’ve challenged Brady in 2014?

Most importantly, if Brady were governor would Bruce Rauner have made the shift from venture capitalist to stubborn politician? Illinois had Republican governors from 1977 through 2003, but Rauner was a different breed — and an historic loser against JB Pritzker in 2018. If Brady beats Quinn, maybe neither businessman becomes chief executive. No epic budget stalemate. No progressive agenda.

As always, elections have consequences.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Media Illinois. Follow him on Twitter at @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.