EYE ON ILLINOIS: No matter where Kinzinger throws his hat, a primary challenger likely awaits

If you’re a fan of Adam Kinzinger, do yourself a favor and don’t type his name into the Twitter search bar.

Kinzinger, the Channahon Republican who has represented north central Illinois in Congress for the past decade, is inviting scorn from his right flank by outwardly challenging the lame duck president’s persistent claims of election fraud and insisting the nation — and his political party — move forward into a new reality.

“Recall Kinzinger. He is a traitor to the American people.”

“That dude RINO Kinzinger needs to be voted out.”

“He was just re-elected … but we will primary Mr. Kinzinger next time around!”

Those are the mild critiques. A good deal aren’t suitable for print. It’s only going to get worse in the coming days as we head toward the Jan. 6 Congressional validation of the Nov. 3 election. Although Kinzinger voted in line with the president’s position 92.2% of the time since 2017, according to FiveThirtyEight, he’s directly called out the president’s stolen election rhetoric and is outspoken in his concern about incoming House colleagues who buy into conspiracy theories and shun compromise and common sense.

But is he in any electoral danger?

In six Congressional elections, Kinzinger has never earned fewer than 129,108 votes, the amount he pulled in his 2010 win over 11th District incumbent Debbie Halvorson. In 2012, after Democrats redrew political maps, Kinzinger was forced into the 16th against GOP incumbent Rep. Don Manzullo. After winning the primary 54-46, Kinzinger coasted in the general election, capturing 181,789 votes to Wanda Rohl’s 112,301.

A 2014 primary challenge from David Hale was harmless, as Kinzinger grabbed 78.4% of the vote, then won the general 153,388-63,810 over Randall Olsen. Kinzinger ran unopposed in the primary and general in 2016. Two years later he again handily won a primary, 68-32, and the general 60-41. He had no primary opponent in 2020, and in the general won 218,839 votes, beating Democrat Dani Brzozowski by 99,526.

He’s a seasoned campaigner, an experienced fundraiser and a House veteran with plenty of time left to give to politics. But whether he remains in Congress after 2022 is unpredictable.

Kinzinger could throw his hat in the gubernatorial ring. He could challenge U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth in her first re-election bid. Those are easier options to consider at present because Congressional districts are the great unknown. Illinois could lose one or two seats based on Census figures, and Democrats will protect their own interests when drawing new maps.

Kinzinger embraces the cause of “restoring” the GOP. Wherever he decides to run in 2022, a primary foe is almost unavoidable. Whether it’s a formidable challenge or a mere Twitter mob manifestation remains to be seen.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Media Local News Network. Follow him on Twitter at @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.