Think low.

At least lower.

Kankakee County’s land mass has not declined, but the number of those who call the 676.5 square miles here home certainly is growing smaller.

According to the 2023 U.S. Census Bureau’s annual estimates of residential populations, the numbers of those living within Kankakee County — Illinois’ 27th largest county in terms of land — continues on a downward trend.

Communities outside of Kankakee County’s borders, meaning villages and cities in nearby counties, are also experiencing declining populations.

Within Kankakee County, the four major communities — Bradley, Bourbonnais, Kankakee and Manteno — have all experienced drops in population, albeit some of them slight, since 2020, according to census data.

Based on the annual estimate from the census officials, Bradley’s population has declined annually since 2020, as has Bourbonnais, Kankakee, Manteno, Momence, Watseka, Grant Park, Beecher, Aroma Park, Wilmington and Herscher, just to name a few.

The reasoning for such a trend is varied. Factors are likely the rising cost of living and taxation. Another could be the climate. Yet another is a declining birth rate.

Whatever the reason, whether it’s one or several, the trend is not what this region had hoped to be experiencing.

Tim Nugent, who wears duel hats in Kankakee County as Manteno mayor and Economic Alliance of Kankakee County president and CEO, said he had hoped Manteno would have reached a population of 10,000 by the time the calendar reached 2030.

While he’s still not saying that figure is unreachable, it is becoming more fantasy than reality.

Manteno’s 2023 population estimate is 9,163. In 2022, it was 9,179. In 2021, it was 9,192. The numbers are moving in the wrong direction.

Nugent noted younger generations are not having as many children and as the Baby Boomer generation declines, simple arithmetic takes over.

“Families are smaller, and a lot of older people are moving away,” he said. “There are a lot of people working here (Kankakee County), but not living here.”

Every year, the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimation Program uses data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population changes since the most recent census.

The results of the formula become the Annual Estimates report for residential population throughout the nation.

Only miles south of Manteno is Bradley. The village, which has become the county’s retail hub, has been losing population as well, having dropped to 15,221. In the 2021 survey, it was at 15,381 — a loss of 160.

“It sure seems like houses are selling,” Bradley Mayor Mike Watson said.

Watson said the census has been flawed since the 2020 national count was conducted during a global pandemic.

“Hopefully the next census will not have issues, and we can get an accurate count,” he said.

Like Watson, Kankakee Mayor Chris Curtis has a hard time accepting the 2020 U.S. Census. In that count, the city’s total population fell to nearly 24,000.

Curtis contemplated a special census, but eventually backed away due to the cost of a recount. The cost would have likely been in the $1 million range.

Federal funding for communities is based on census data.

With what he describes as a “questionable” 2020 count, Curtis said he believes the annual surveys are following that same line.

“It is what it is,” he said. “I see what is happening here. I’m seeing economic development. I’m seeing rising housing prices. I’m seeing homes selling quickly.”

He is also looking to the future. He believes between now and 2030, the city could add 600 to 1,000 residents in this approximate six-year window. He is crossing his fingers the population could inch its way back to 25,000.

Curtis sees a lack of available houses in Manteno, in Bourbonnais.

“If the population were dwindling, there wouldn’t be a demand for houses,” he said.

Nugent said in the early 2000s there was a strong growth rate here. That pattern, he noted, was simply not sustainable. He said Manteno’s infrastructure system — schools, water and sewer — were being overwhelmed.

Like other leaders, he is seeking growth, but in a manageable way. He maintains the Midwest is still a great place to call home.

“This is a good place,” he said of Kankakee County. “This is a good place to work and make a living.”