Point total is dropping in Chicago Bears at New York Giants matchup in Week 4

A game featuring the New York Giants and Chicago Bears won’t be mistaken for an offensive showcase. And that is probably why the total is already starting to trend down from its opening price.

The total for Sunday’s matchup between the Giants and Bears is now down to 38.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. The total opened at 39.5 when the odds were first released this past weekend.

A movement of one full point might not seem like much, but it is the opposite of last week’s line movement when the total moved up a point within the early part of the week. That line movement proved to be justified, as the Bears’ 23-20 win over the Houston Texans went over the opening total of 39.

The Bears have only had one game over their closing point total thus far, according to sportsoddshistory.com. Their 19-10 victory over the San Francisco 49ers finished below the mark of 38 in Week 1, while a 27-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers went under the total of 41.5 on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.

Similar to the Bears, the Giants had their first two games finish under before going over the point total in Week 3.

The Giants started the season 2-0 with a 21-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys and a 19-16 victory over the Carolina Panthers, going under the respective point totals of 44 and 43.5 in those two outings. A 23-16 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football finished over the point total of 38.5.

Neither the Bears nor the Giants seem to have much faith in their quarterback, and would prefer to lean on the ground game instead. Second-year quarterback Justin Fields has yet to record a game with more than 17 passing attempts, as the Bears rank at the bottom of the league is pass rate over expectation.

That style of play tends to be conducive to the under, especially since the under has been hitting at a high rate across the league through three weeks. But it will be interesting to see if any money comes in on the over, at least now that the total has dropped so low.

As for the spread, the Bears remain a 3-point underdog (-105 juice) against the Giants. The spread touched 3.5 on Tuesday, but has mostly been hovering around the key number. If there is any spread movement, it will likely be in favor of the Giants ahead of kickoff at MetLife Stadium.