NFL Week 4 figures to be doozy.
We have three compelling primetime games, including a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. There are a dozen games with a spread of 3.5 or lower, so expect a competitive slate this weekend.
I’ll try to navigate through all that to come up with some plays for NFL Week 4. I’ve already got my eye on a few games as of Tuesday morning, based on the odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up with our friends at Caesars Sportsbook today to take advantage of their new-user offer.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Starting with the first game of Week 4, this feels like a great time to back the defending AFC champions. The spread might seem a bit surprising with the undefeated Dolphins getting 3.5 points against a Bengals squad that is coming off a win over the New York Jets, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
This is a brutal spot for the Dolphins, who are coming off an emotional win over the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins’ defense was on the field for 90 plays and now will have a short week to travel to Cincinnati. The Dolphins should be able to generate pressure against an underwhelming offensive line, but I’m curious if we see any lapses on the short week.
It will be interesting to see if there ends up being Dolphins support following their hot start to the season, which includes win over the Bills and Baltimore Ravens. But there is also a chance that the situational spot just attracts plenty of money on the Bengals, who still have plenty of talented players to break any game open.
Pick: Bengals -3 (-110)
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
I am surprised by this one. My power ratings make the Browns a bigger favorite, especially since they get 10 days to prepare for this game after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
The Falcons might be the best of the bad teams, but they could be a bit overmatched in this one. The Browns have the advantage in the trenches, and that defense could prove to be Marcus Mariota’s toughest test yet.
The Browns have been leaning on the ground game through the early part of the season, but quarterback Jacoby Brissett has also exceeded expectations. I think this line is going to continue to move in the Browns’ favor, so I’d take the spread before it is too late as long as it remains under a field goal.
Pick: Browns -1.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers
It is tough to have confidence backing either of these two teams right now, but I prefer the plus-price (spread and moneyline) on the Arizona Cardinals in this one.
The Panthers picked up their first win of the year, but their 22-14 victory over the Saints certainly wasn’t the most visually appealing performance. Baker Mayfield threw for 170 yards and one quarter, but it was more about the Panthers taking advantage of mistakes made by Jameis Winston.
The Cardinals are going to have a down year, but I’d much rather bet on Kyler Murray in this game. He got things going with Marquise Brown in last week’s loss to the Rams, as the duo linked up for 14 catches and 140 yards. Similar to the Browns’ pick, I’ll be taking the spread early in the week in anticipation of this line moving in favor of the road team.
Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-110)