All about value and fading public in NFL Week 3: Best Bets for September 25

Going against the almighty Eagles and expecting scoring in Tennessee? Yep.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts in action during an NFL football game, Monday, Sept. 19, 2022, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Sunday, Sept. 25:

(All times Central)

TOP PLAY

The play: NFL, Commanders +6.5 over Eagles

The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time: Noon

Our take: In our first value / fade-the-public play of the week, this one makes as much sense as any NFL pick we have made thus far in the early season.

As of late Saturday night, well over 65 percent of the tickets were on Philadelphia, and why shouldn’t they be after the Eagles’ ridiculously hot start? That being said, more than 65 percent of the money are on Washington. Why? The simple answer is because of the value.

This line was Eagles -3 about two weeks ago, but are they 3½ points better from the start of the season? The short answer is no. Meanwhile, the Commanders clearly are a better football team with Carson Wentz as quarterback, and Wentz will be looking for a bit of revenge against his former team.

Philadelphia had a bit of trouble with Jared Goff on the road in Week 1, and it could be a similar thing here with Wentz on the road. While we wouldn’t advocate taking Washington straight up on the money line, there is value there, as well, at +235.

VALUE TOTAL

The play: NFL total, Raiders at Titans over 45.5

The odds/bet: -110 ($11 to win $10)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time: Noon

Our take: I nearly made this the top pick of the week, as the sides are nearly equal to the Philly-Washington game with the sharks on the over and Aunt Mabel on the under. It’s easy to see why the public would be backing a low-scoring game, and that’s due to an inherit bias against the Titans’ offense (which is completely justifiable).

However, and if one were to dig a bit deeper, it would be easy to see these two defenses haven’t been all that good thus far, as the Titans are 28th in the NFL with the Raiders 23rd.

It could be a nice rebound day for Derrick Henry, while Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr also should be able to find his big weapons in Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Saturday’s picks and results

NCAA football: Cincinnati -16.5 over Indiana (WON $30)

MLB, Aaron Judge to homer vs. Red Sox (LOST $10)

Saturday’s profit/loss: +$20 (1-1)

Total for the week: -$15.50 (5-6)

Total for September: -$197.90 (17-27)

Total for 2022: -$246.70 (240-276)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

Must be 21 or older to gamble. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)

Jim Derry

Jim Derry is a sports betting writer for The Advocate