On the surface, it looks like expectations for the Chicago Bears have not changed much after their 1-1 start.
The Bears’ win total is still 6.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. That is the same win total this team had entering the season, suggesting the market hasn’t adjusted their preseason expectations.
But you can actually get a better price on the under now, compared to what it was a few weeks ago. The under is currently juiced to -125, which is a much better price than it was earlier this month. The over is priced at +105, meaning a $100 bet would net $105 if the Bears won seven or more games.
The reason why the under was juiced entering the year was because everybody was betting it. According to this tweet from Ben Fawkes of VSiN, 95% of the bets were on the under as of late June for the most lopsided win total bet in the NFL.
Sportsbooks offering updated win totals throughout the season has become more popular due to the growth of legalized sports betting. It offers a chance for players to take advantage of surprise results early in the year.
So, if you are someone who liked the under on the Bears’ win total in August, consider taking the better price entering Week 3. The Bears host the Houston Texans on Sunday and are currently just a 2.5-point favorite. The betting odds suggest that these two teams are closer to even on a neutral field.
It obviously wouldn’t be surprising if the Bears lost this week, and this price on the regular-season win total would quickly adjust. If you are somebody who was down on the Bears entering the year, I don’t know how you aren’t betting the Texans and the adjusted win total this week.
Yet the over could adjust from a price standpoint after this week’s game, too. If the Bears win, they will likely be around a field goal underdog in next week’s matchup with the New York Giants. There are winnable games on deck for the Bears, who already have one unexpected victory under their belt.
When we look back on the season, don’t be surprised if this week proved to be pivotal for the Bears.