Cal at Notre Dame odds preview: Irish are favored again. Can they finally get their first win?

September 16, 2022 at 11:00 am CDT

FILE -Notre Dame and Marshall play during the first half of an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind., Sept. 10, 2022. The athletic directors who lead the schools that play Division I college football at the highest level want the sport to continue be governed by the NCAA — if that governance can be streamlined. LEAD1, an association of Football Bowl Subdivision ADs, convened 105 of its 131 members Wednesday, Sept. 14, for a meeting that focused mostly on how best to govern major college football. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File) (Michael Conroy/AP)

Notre Dame will try to erase the memories of a bad home opener on a rugged California team on Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.

The Fighting Irish were gashed for 219 rushing yards and fell to 0-2 with a 26-21 loss to Marshall last week. Meanwhile, Cal held off UNLV 20-14 behind quarterback Jack Plummer, who threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, to move to 2-0.

Caesars Sportsbook has listed the Irish as a 11-point favorite with an over/under of 40.5.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

California Golden Bears at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Time/TV: 1:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Notre Dame -11

Money line: Cal +310; Notre Dame -400

Over/under: 40.5

Analysis: Cal has very good value as a double-digit underdog to a Notre Dame team that is struggling to find an identity on offense and starting a new quarterback, junior Drew Pyne. Neither offense has been much to crow about so far this season, and the under 40½ is certainly worth a look.

Notre Dame has to get a running game going. Quarterback Tyler Buchner led Notre Dame in rushing last week, and he is likely going o miss the rest of the season with an injury. California has a very good defense, but Notre Dame Is a much better team and the SP+ rankings gap between the teams (Notre Dame 18th and California 74th) spell that out.

The Irish should win straight up, but the back-door cover is in play here. Cal will put together enough offense late to get the cover.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, California 16

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Corey Long

Corey Long is a contributor to The Advocate