Bet on the primetime trend to end in Bears-Packers matchup on Sunday Night Football

The next NFL primetime game will feature the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers in a rivalry matchup at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football.

In case you haven’t heard, each of the first four primetime games have gone under the closing point total. The fourth game was an expected shootout between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, which finished below its over/under of 54 points in a 27-24 affair.

But I’m betting on that trend to come to an end, with my first bet of the Bears-Packers matchup being over 41.5 total points. The total is still 41.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. Sign up today to take advantage of their new-user offer and place a bet on the over with me.

Before you click out of this article in disgust, allow me to explain myself. Both of these teams project to be more of an under team, which proved to be the case in Week 1. Yet this total is too low when you consider the spread is double-digits, as the Packers are favored by 10 points.

[ Play this boosted parlay for Bears vs. Packers on Sunday Night Football ]

The Packers looked out of sorts on offense in a 23-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week, but history tells us not to bury this team too soon. The Packers scored just three points in a 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints in last year’s opener before bouncing back with a 35-17 victory over the Detroit Lions.

Of course, things are a bit different now. The Packers traded away star receiver Davante Adams in the offseason and presumptive WR1 Allen Lazard has been sidelined to start the year. This team is also dealing with a multitude of injuries along the offensive line.

That said, back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers is still leading the show and he’s fared well against the Bears. He is 22-5 against his rival, throwing 61 total touchdowns and an average of 242.5 passing yards per game in his career. Even if Rodgers has to lean on his running backs in the pass game, I would expect him to produce on Sunday.

I also just think the Bears might be better offensively while playing on dry land this week. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who came from the Packers, was limited on what he could do last week and this should really be considered his debut.

The Bears still averaged 0.12 EPA (expected points added) per pass amid unfavorable conditions last Sunday. Quarterback Justin Fields only attempted 15 passes, but delivered some of the biggest game-changing plays during a two-touchdown effort. The adjustments the Bears made in the second half should be commended, too, something that could prove to be helpful in cashing an over ticket this weekend.

The spread is aligned with my projection, but I see enough avenues for the over to come through on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Over 41.5