Northern Illinois nearly a TD underdog in road test with Tulsa

Northern Illinois escaped Week 1 with a 34-27 victory over Eastern Illinois last Thursday to start the season 1-0.

The Huskies, who were more than a 30-point favorite entering the matchup, raced out to a 21-6 halftime lead before giving up 14 points in the fourth quarter. The late charge by Eastern Illinois helped us cash our over bet, but it made the game much more of a scare than it needed to be.

That said, it is important to not overreact to one game, especially when the season is just four-quarters old. And that’s why I’m taking the points with Northern Illinois in its first road test of the 2022 season.

The Huskies are a 6-point underdog in this week’s matchup at Tulsa via Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. Sign up today to place your NIU bets and take advantage of their new-user offer.

Tulsa opened the season with a three-point loss to Wyoming, and offense was on display in what turned out to be a 40-37 thriller that ultimately needed two overtimes. The Golden Hurricane scored 17 points in the second quarter, though they did not produce more than a touchdown in any of the other three frames.

My power ratings make this Tulsa -3.5, so I see enough value in taking the underdog. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a 31-28 victory for Tulsa, which also points to NIU and the under on the current point total of 63.5 points.

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The Huskies surrendered 441 total yards of offense in last week’s narrow victory, though 315 of those yards came in the second half. This is an experienced group, so I would expect NIU to learn from letting Eastern Illinois make a late push in last week’s opener.

“There are some things we need to do better,” NIU head coach Thomas Hammock told reporters in his weekly press conference. “We have to be able to finish plays. But I like the way the guys have responded.”

NIU played in 10 games that were decided by eight points or less last year, coming away with seven victories in those contests. When this group is getting nearly a full touchdown on the spread, it is hard not to take the points in what could be a competitive matchup on Saturday.

Kickoff is slated for 6 p.m. CT at Chapman Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN+ for those wanting to have action on the contest.