College football betting, Week 2: Alabama makes a rare trip to Texas, plus five other top picks

A mixed bag for our first week of picks, nailing the game of the week with Notre Dame +17, getting an easy winner on Nevada and going 4-2 overall — but also missing on Cincinnati as an outright upset (Bearcats did have some bad luck) and badly whiffing on San Diego State.

Hey, it’s the early season. We’ll get better as we go, or at least I hope we will.

The game of the week this week is a juicy matchup when you say it — Alabama at Texas — but will it end up being competitive on the field? No one can be sure of that. Let’s dig in.

(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, as of Wednesday)

Game of the Week

No. 1 ALABAMA (-20) at TEXAS, 11 a.m., Fox: In the first example of Nick Saban’s shifting schedule philosophy, this is the Crimson Tide’s first true non-conference road game since it beat Penn State in 2011. In that game — which, remember, was when Alabama was a powerhouse but before it had become a juggernaut — the Tide was a 10-point favorite and covered in a 27-11 victory. (The only other Alabama road non-conference game in Saban’s tenure was the year before, a 62-13 smashing of Duke.)

So we don’t have a lot of trends to go on here. We also don’t know a lot, quite frankly, about Texas. The Longhorns dispatched UL-Monroe 52-10 last week. They were dominant but not utterly so, amassing just 383 yards for 6.6 per play and allowing 259 for 4 per play. But who knows how much they were holding back for Bama?

Twenty points is a huge road spread, and I’m tempted to just take the home team with the points. Maybe Quinn Ewers will live up to the hype, and maybe Bijan Robinson just can’t be stopped from churning those legs. But what we do know is that Alabama may have both the best offensive and defensive player in the country. We do know that Texas’ defense has left a lot to be desired in Steve Sarkisian’s short tenure.

In short, we know that Alabama IS a juggernaut now. And 20 points still isn’t enough for me to fade the Tide here, even on the road.

The pick: Alabama 44, Texas 17

Best bets

APPALACHIAN STATE at No. 6 TEXAS A&M (-19), 2:30 p.m., ESPN2: Now that we’re into the season, we have the opportunity to take advantage of market overreactions. And I believe that’s what we saw with App State playing North Carolina down to the wire in a wild thriller — while at the same time Texas A&M was suffering through a rain delay and a game that wasn’t a whole lot more exciting than the weather, a 31-0 win over Sam Houston State.

App State is much better than Sam Houston, yes, but the Mountaineers’ defense was quite simply atrocious against North Carolina, which averaged more than 8 yards per play and could have won going away without some late drama. That should allow Haynes King and the Aggies offense to get uncorked a bit, and as explosive as App State’s attack can be, they’ll find the going much tougher against A&M.

This number isn’t high enough. Lay the points.

The pick: Texas A&M 45, Appalachian State 20

IOWA STATE (+3½) at IOWA, 3 p.m., BTN: Maybe this line is a trap. If so, I’m falling for it and overreacting to Week 1.

It just seems inconceivable that Iowa could be favored by more than a field goal over a Power Five conference team — a pretty good one, at that — after managing seven points against South Dakota State, four of them on safeties.

My conclusion is that the market just hasn’t corrected enough to how paltry this offense is. Meanwhile, Iowa State would like some revenge on its rivals for a strange turnover-filled loss last year. The sledding will be tough on this Hawkeyes defense, to be sure, and Iowa has a tremendous punter (I’m not kidding; when you play like they do, you’ve got to win field position), but this game feels like it should be a pick ‘em at worst.

The pick: Iowa State 20, Iowa 17

No. 20 KENTUCKY (+6) at No. 12 FLORIDA, 6 p.m., ESPN:

Another one to file under overreaction. Yes, the Gators had one of the nation’s best wins in Week 1 when they outlasted Utah with a late interception. Yes, Florida is probably better than you thought.

But Kentucky is no slouch. Will Levis is a possible first-round NFL draft pick, so it’s not like Anthony Richardson and Florida have that big of an edge at QB here. Kentucky’s defense may not be quite the level of Utah’s, but it’s not bad, either.

Had this game been played a week ago, it probably a 1½-point spread. Now it’s almost a touchdown? In a game that could come down to the wire, I’ll gladly take the points.

The pick: Florida 28, Kentucky 27

SAN JOSE STATE at AUBURN (-23), 6:30 p.m., ESPNU: Auburn may not be the cream of the SEC West crop, but the Tigers are still very talented compared to most teams in the country, especially along the offensive and defensive lines.

That’s bad news for San Jose State, which averaged 1.7 yards per rush in an uninspiring 21-17 win over Portland State to open its season. In fact, the Spartans were out-gained in that medieval battle against the Vikings by a 395-288 count.

Now they go to Auburn, where coach Bryan Harsin not only needs every win he can get but could use a few style points along the way. Ponchatoula native and former LSU quarterback TJ Finley should get a chance to pad some stats and Tank Bigsby (147 yards, 2 touchdowns last week against Mercer) will help the Tigers continue to score.

The pick: Auburn 41, San Jose State 7

No. 9 BAYLOR at No. 21 BYU (-3), 9:15 p.m., ESPN: This week doesn’t have the type of game you plan your whole day around, like Notre Dame-Ohio State last week or Texas A&M-Alabama next month. But there are so many good undercard-type games with two Power Five conference teams establishing a pecking order: Missouri-Kansas State, Tennessee-Pitt, Iowa State-Iowa, Arizona State-Oklahoma State, Washington State-Wisconsin, Mississippi State-Arizona, etc.

But the best of the bunch might be this one, with BYU trying to stake its claim as a bona fide College Football Playoff contender against reigning Big 12 champion Baylor. The Cougars tore apart South Florida’s defense last week to the tune of 573 yards and more than 8 per play balanced between running and passing.

Baylor will be a stiffer test, of course, but the Bears lost a lot of firepower from last year’s team and are making one of the tougher road trips in college football. The night crowd in Provo could make a difference in this one.

The pick: BYU 31, Baylor 23

LAST WEEK: 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread

LAST YEAR: 56-29 straight up, 43-42 ATS