Big Ten Game of the Week: How is Iowa favored over Iowa State?

The annual Cy-Hawk Game has become a September favorite of many college football fans across the country. The teams are generally competitive, the rivalry is fierce and the matchup offers a good way for the Big Ten and Big 12 conferences to measure up early in the season.

This year should be no different. Iowa and Iowa State both come in off of victories in their openers against FCS schools, though the methods were totally different. The Cyclones mangled Southeast Missouri State 42-10 behind 128 yards and three touchdowns receiving from Xavier Hutchinson, while the Hawkeyes muddied through a 7-3 victory over South Dakota State — and the seven points were two safeties and a field goal, no touchdown.

That sets up a fascinating Week 2 matchup. On a week when most Big Ten teams are stepping out of conference to play guarantee games, it’s an easy choice for our Big Ten Game of the Week. Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty, including odds from Caesars Sportsbook:

Iowa State at Iowa

Time/TV: 3 p.m. Saturday, Iowa City, Big Ten Network

Point spread (updated odds at Caesars Sportsbook): Iowa -3.5

Money line: Iowa -178; Iowa State +150

Over/under: 40

Analysis: As mentioned, Iowa managed to win a game against one of the better teams in FCS last week without the benefit of a touchdown. It’s not clear whether that’s impressive or kind of sad. Probably somewhere in between.

In any case, the Hawkeyes can’t rely on that method any more, certainly not against a Cyclones team that has ranked in the top 50 nationally in nearly every offensive category since coach Matt Campbell’s third year in 2018. In last year’s Cy-Hawk game in Ames, the Cyclones actually out-gained the Hawkeyes 339-173 in a 27-17 loss.

Of course, Iowa State’s calling card is defense, too, and that’s going to put the onus on third-year Iowa starting quarterback Spencer Petras to be more efficient. Petras has 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 20 career starts, and if anything, his stats seem to be regressing: In his past eight games, he has one touchdown and eight interceptions.

In short, it’s hard to make much sense of this line. Iowa has tremendous talent on defense, to be sure, but the offense showed nothing last week that would lead you to believe they’re any better than the unit that stumbled to the finish line last year. Take the Cyclones and the under.

Prediction: Iowa State 20, Iowa 17