This Justin Fields prop isn’t fun, but is priced right for Illinois bettors

As if Week 1 couldn’t get any better, a pair of promising second-year quarterbacks are slated to square off in Soldier Field on Sunday. All eyes will be on the two quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL season opener between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco.

This is officially Trey Lance’s first year as QB1 since the 49ers traded up to the No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Justin Fields, meanwhile, will get a fresh start under a new regime with the Bears after the team traded up to select him with the No. 11 pick in the same NFL Draft.

These two quarterbacks will be compared to each other for the rest of their respective careers, but Sunday’s opener is the first time Fields and Lance will actually square off. And that alone offers up an interesting way to bet on this matchup.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports, has several player prop options for both quarterbacks in this year’s season opener. Sign up today to take advantage of their new-user offer and place your bet on either quarterback.

Comparing the two QB player props

Let’s look at how these two promising young players compare to each other, at least from a player prop perspective ahead of Week 1.

Fields has an over/under of 0.5 touchdown passes, with the over juiced to -244 and the under priced at +172. Lance’s line is set at 1.5, but the over is +126 compared to -174 on the under. These odds would suggest that both quarterbacks should finish with one touchdown pass.

In terms of passing yards, Fields has a current total of 198.5 while Lance’s mark is 204.5. What’s interesting about that is that oddsmakers actually seem to believe the Bears will pass more and find a bit more success through the air.

Fields has one more completion on his over/under with a line of 17.5 completed passes at Caesars Sportsbook. The over is even juiced to -157. Lance’s line is set at 16.5 and the over is priced at -127. Fields has an over/under of 28.5 passing attempts (over -145), while Lance’s mark is 25.5 attempts and the over priced at -142.

It is easy to build a narrative around Fields finishing with more passing attempts. Not only are the 49ers more of a run-heavy team, but the Bears are 7-point underdogs and might end up playing from behind in this game.

Because both of these quarterbacks can run, it is necessary to look at their rushing props. Fields, who finished with 103 rushing yards on 10 attempts in last year’s matchup against the 49ers, has an over/under of 36.5 rushing yards (over -125) in this week’s game. Lance’s current total is 38.5 rushing yards, though the over is priced at -125.

Best Bet

It might not be fun for Bears’ fans, but under 17.5 passing completions for Fields is worth a look here. It is available at plus-money with a current price of +114 for Fields to complete 17 or fewer passes.

Fields appeared in 12 games last year and completed 18 or more passes in just four different outings. One of those games was against the 49ers, when Fields went 19-for-27 during a 33-22 defeat. Fields finished with a 58.9% completion rate as a rookie, connecting on 159 of his 270 attempts.

There is a chance that Luke Getsy’s offense is better at getting Fields to connect on easy passes, but it might prove to be difficult against a talented San Francisco defense, especially since the Bears could struggle protecting their QB1 against that pass rush. In a game that I already expect to go under, I would bet against Fields having a ton of success through the air.

Pick: Under 17.5 completions for Fields (+115)