What bettors learned about the NFC North during the 2022 NFL preseason

Nobody cares about the results from the NFL preseason, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t important.

It is a stretch to help the front office identify what to do with those final roster spots and to discover potential of a promising young player. The preseason can also be valuable for bettors, as it gives us our first look at what the identity of these teams might look like.

Bettors were able to learn a bit about the Chicago Bears under their new regime during a 3-0 run in the preseason. The rest of the NFC North didn’t find as much success in the win-loss column, but there were still some notable takeaways from what they showed us during the preseason.

All of the betting lines in this story are based on the closing number at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports.

Detroit Lions

We have learned a lot of useful tidbits about the Lions while watching this year’s version of Hard Knocks on HBO. Yet their preseason performance has provided an actionable way of betting this team.

The Lions went 1-2 in the preseason and 0-2-1 against the spread. They are getting a lot of buzz as a trendy NFC team, but I think the way to bet this team is on the point total. Dan Campbell’s crew went over the point total twice in the preseason.

This leads me to believe the Lions are more of an over team, which makes sense given the makeup of this roster. This offense has some nice pieces after bringing in D.J. Chark and drafting Jameson Williams at receiver. D’Andre Swift will have the luxury of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football, which is listed at No. 3 in PFF’s preseason rankings.

None of this should be a surprise. Detroit has the most expensive offense in football this season, particularly because of quarterback Jared Goff’s contract. In addition, the Lions were the 32nd ranked defense last year via Pro Football Focus and need young players to make an immediate impact to show progress on that side of the ball.

The combination of an ascending offense and a lackluster defense sets up the perfect opportunity to target overs. The market seems to agree, as the total for Detroit’s Week 1 meeting with Philadelphia is now at 48.5 after opening at 47. Ten of the Lions’ 17 games last year went under the point total.

Green Bay Packers

Another case of letting my priors be confirmed by the preseason, but the Packers project to be more of an under team. The under came through in nine different Green Bay games last year, but did so twice in the 2022 preseason.

Now, the offense isn’t supposed to be as good when back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers isn’t playing. That said, Rodgers and company will have to adjust to life without star receiver Davante Adams in the regular season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if that meant more touches for running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

More importantly, Green Bay should have one of the best defensive units in all of football this year. The Packers used both of their first-round picks on defensive players from the Georgia Bulldogs, who won the national title behind a dominant defense. Jaire Alexander, who missed most of last year, is slated to return after being PFF’s top-graded cornerback in 2020.

Behind an elite defense, and an offense that might lean on the rushing attack, look for chances to bet the under during Packers’ games earlier in the year. The season opener between the Packers and Vikings is currently set at 48.

Minnesota Vikings

There wasn’t much to learn about the Vikings this preseason.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins did not play, so we have to wait until the regular season to see how the reunion between Kevin O’Connell and Cousins will look. The two previously worked together in Washington, so it probably won’t be much of a transition.

The Vikings lost all three preseason games under O’Connell, who took the job this offseason after serving as offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. Minnesota went 0-3 against the spread, in which the team was the betting underdog in two of those games.

As for the total, the under came through twice and the over was a winner in the preseason finale. Given what the Vikings had to work with, we probably shouldn’t use that information to make bets.

Still, the Vikings are a team expected to bounce back after going 6-8 in one-score games last season. They are currently a two-point underdog at home against the Packers at Caesars Sportsbook.