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GENEVA – After nearly two months of turmoil over the enrollment figures used in the 2007 referendum, Geneva School District 304 officials say they do not know exactly how the numbers were derived, but they maintain there was "nothing deceptive or unlawful" in the referendum campaign.
TaxFACTS, a local tax watchdog group, has dogged and criticized officials at school board meetings.
A TaxFACTS founder, Bob McQuillan, and others say the issue matters because on March 17, 2007, voters approved a $79.9 million referendum. The largest in the district's history, it passed by 100 votes – 2,505 to 2,405. The referendum was to build two new elementary schools and make various upgrades at other schools. One of the schools, Williamsburg, was a replacement for Coultrap Elementary School, which was built in 1923.
In a written response to the onslaught of criticism about the enrollment projections, district officials acknowledged their numbers were higher than consultant John Kasarda's largest estimates.
"The referendum campaign literature in question states that the district's K-12 enrollment was projected to reach 7,472 students by 2012," says a district statement that was released May 29. " 'These projections are calculated by district officials with various scenarios in the formulas and have been verified by the Kasarda consulting firm.' This number, however, is higher than Kasarda's most aggressive estimates, which project 6,670 students in 2011-12."
Kasarda said he never verified any numbers for the district because his reports stand on their own.
According to the May 29 statement, the district sought demographer Kasarda's review as a way to validate information during the data- gathering phase of its 10-year facility master plan in February 2006.
"There is no record of which individual(s) was responsible for the exact statement used in the referendum campaign literature," according to the district's statement.
"But it is understandable that some might call into question the discrepancy between the projections and the wording used. However, it is clear from the review of documents, that district officials took into account various sources of input and build-out estimates as they calculated enrollment projections."
McQuillan countered that when Kasarda's 2006 report reduced some enrollment projections from his 2005 report, it should have been a red flag to school officials.
"Instead of reducing the [enrollment] numbers, they used numbers inflated above" Kasarda's highest projections, McQuillan said. "They stated that they used their model and then hired Dr. Kasarda to verify their numbers. Dr. Kasarda's report did not verify the district's internal projections – yet the taxpayers were told that he did. An unnamed individual or group made the decision to use the district's projections but claim they were verified by Dr. Kasarda. That question still has not been answered."
Board member Mary Stith said she understands that officials' answers do not satisfy TaxFACTS or other critics. But she said she does not know where the numbers came from or how they were put into the referendum information given to the public.
"I wish I knew," Stith said. "These people can massacre me all they want, cast aspersions and slander me all they want. I can't make something up to make these people happy … I don't know where the numbers came from. Truth does not make them happy."
Board member Bill Wilson said he was stymied at being asked to recall details that are five years old.
"I have no idea," Wilson said of how the enrollment numbers were determined. "I remember we went through research and did everything we could … we reviewed numbers from Kasarda and the [Kane County Regional Office of Education] and a lot of different research. But who put out the final numbers? I don't remember the board putting them out."
Wilson said officials were looking at enrollment projections while the schools were "bursting at the seams."
"We made decisions based on what was the right thing to do," Wilson said. "I don't know how final numbers were decided … We had meeting after meeting after meeting and at the end of the day, it was the right thing. I don't have any second thoughts that any of us did the wrong thing or tried to do the wrong thing. Why this would come up now is because somebody's upset about the tax rate."
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Exactly how the enrollment projections in the referendum materials were made is still not clear.
The district provided the Kane County Chronicle with extensive records requested through the Freedom of Information Act.
But none of the reports, meeting minutes, emails or memos showed a work sheet, memo or report that matched the projections stated in the 2007 referendum.
The district could not provide records on the creation of promotional materials for the referendum.
What the records did show was that in 2005, D-304 schools were crowded with an enrollment of 5,723. Officials were looking at a veritable tsunami of additional students, caused by what one report called the "the results of unbridled land development."
A geographic analysis of the district, provided by the regional office of education, calculated that if all vacant parcels were developed – referred to as a "worst case scenario" – that possibly 4,272 to 6,330 more students could be added to the district's enrollment.
The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission estimated District 304's population could reach 8,231 students by 2030, records show.
The district's facility master plan in February 2006 projected an additional 1,257 students in 10 years, based on enrollment and construction history, records show.
Officials said they also relied on enrollment projections provided by renowned demographer Kasarda, who did reports for the district in 2005, 2006 and 2011.
Using detailed information from developers, birth and death records, census data and student numbers as they migrated from grade to grade, Kasarda put out three levels of projections in each report. A was the minimum, B the most likely and C an unlikely maximum that would exceed developers' expectations by 20 percent.
In his November 2006 report, Kasarda's projection B put the district's total enrollment at 6,148 by the 2011-12 school year.
Stith said once the board got that Kasarda report, it voted in December 2006 to go to referendum. The vote was unanimous, 7-0.
"We went to referendum because we needed it," Stith said. "We already had a need to replace Coultrap, and we were already overcrowded and needed Fabyan."
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Kasarda's series B shows an increase of 345 students from 2007 to 2012. His series C calculated 888 as the increase for that same time period. But the district claimed in its referendum material an increase of 1,618 students over that time period.
The discrepancy went unnoticed at the time and probably would have remained so if the economy had not tanked in 2008 and the housing market not plummeted, affecting growth.
The district's June 2011 enrollment on its website is 5,975. As of this week, officials reported a total enrollment of 5,882.
Officials say that Kasarda's information was one of several sources used. The district's statement also says that Kasarda did not have numbers from some of the developments to use in his projections.
Board President Mark Grosso, who was not on the board at the time, admitted April 23 that the enrollment projections were inflated that a multiplier had been used. Grosso said he could not find out where the inflated numbers came from. Grosso said too much time had passed for an investigation, and the district has more immediate needs.
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Rebecca Allard was the assistant superintendent for business from 2002 to 2008. In Kasarda's 2006 report, he singles Allard out for recognition as she "assembled much of the information upon which this demographic study is based."
Allard, who now works for Park Ridge Community Consolidated District 64, said in an email that she could not say who approved the decisions to put enrollment numbers higher than the Kasarda report in the referendum materials.
"I can only rely on my memory," Allard wrote in the email response. "I absolutely deny ever being a part of falsifying numbers."
Former Superintendent Michael Jacoby, a Geneva resident who also is executive director of the Illinois Association of School Business Officials, said the district looked at Kasarda's work as one report, better for short-term planning than long-term. Jacoby left July 1, 2006, the same day the district's current superintendent, Kent Mutchler, began.
"For long-term planning, you want to look at saturation of development in your district," Jacoby said. "If you build a building, you want it to serve the next 50 to 60 years. You are much more concerned about coming up short in the long run with decisions you are going to make about construction … you are making sure you have enough classroom space to support that growth."
The district always used various models to project growth, he said.
"In the end, I think at that particular moment in time, growth was going to continue at that pace you had seen historically and that was a good assumption," Jacoby said. "We used to remind people that if you build and it takes longer for students to come than projected, just be thankful you built at prior prices. Construction always increases in cost."
Jacoby said the administration always prepared the informational materials presented at forums about referendums when he was superintendent.
• • •
Nearly every official connected to the referendum said he or she does not know where the enrollment numbers used came from nor who prepared the informational materials presented to the public.
Mutchler said he does not know who wrote the informational material, but suggested it was either Allard or the volunteer committee.
Allard said she did not prepare the informational material.
"I don't know who prepared it for the committee; I just know I didn't," Allard said.
Peter Temple, who was co-chair of the Geneva Citizens for Excellent Schools Committee – a volunteer citizen group that helped pass the referendum – said, in his recollection, the materials were already prepared by the time he and his wife started with the group. He said he does not know who prepared the materials. He and his wife served on the committee because the previous co-chairs had to step down.
As to enrollment numbers, Mutchler said Jacoby and Allard worked on the research prior to his coming to the district.
"The district had done its own projections and hired Kasarda to verify the numbers," Mutchler said. "They did not feel he included enough areas. He did not include the area around Richardson Electric, [which was] parceled out by several different developers."
But Mutchler also said he did not know who put the final numbers forward.
"It was not me," Mutchler said.
Former board members Margaret Selakovich and Autumn Burns, who were liaisons to the volunteer committee, also said they did not remember details of the information used to promote the referendum. Former D-304 Board President Dean Kilburg, now 3rd Ward alderman in Geneva, also said he did not recall.
Former board member Susan Shivers said she would not comment, and current board member Timothy Moran did not return messages seeking comment.
More on the story
As the 2007 enrollment numbers used in the 2007 referendum continue to be an issue for Geneva School District 304 officials, the smoking gun for Bob McQuillan, a TaxFACTS founder, is a video of the school board's retreat on March 17 this year.
In it, Superintendent Kent Mutchler talks about getting the most recent report from demographer John Kasarda, done in November 2011.
"We've always been following – since I've been here – the level B projections and he did recalculate – Kasarda and his group – did recalculate level A, B and C," Mutchler said.
At issue are three projections Kasarda uses in his reports, A for the minimum growth, B for the most likely and C, an unlikely maximum that would exceed developers' expectations by 20 percent.
At the meeting, board member Mary Stith says in the video she gets approached by people who think the district took a "fast aggressive approach in planning schools."
"When in reality," Stith said, "if we had done that, we would [have] an empty school in [Settlements of La Fox] right now … we did not use our fastest growth in planning."
McQuillan said the district's response to the 2007 referendum issues is in conflict with what officials say at the retreat.
"They just admitted … they did use the most aggressive numbers and even went above those most aggressive numbers from Kasarda and put in their own methodology on it," McQuillan said. "So in reality, what you are hearing here is people saying, 'Oh we did not use the most aggressive numbers, we always use series B,' but in reality it's just exactly opposite of what they're saying now."
But Mutchler says McQuillan is taking his comments out of context.
"We did not talk about the master facility plan or the referendum at all," Mutchler said of what they discussed at the retreat. "We were talking about planning in the last few years; we used Kasarda B. It showed me explaining that."
Stith said in the video that officials did not use the most aggressive numbers available or there would have been another school built for the Settlements of LaFox and no students to attend.
"The figures in the referendum information – I don't know where they came from," Stith said. "I do not know who wrote it or where the numbers came from. It was not an effort to deceive the public."