With several factors in play, the head of Minooka High School District 111 anticipates fairly flat enrollment in the long-term future, based on details shared at a recent school board meeting.

A number of commercial and residential developments are sprouting up across the multiple counties and communities within District 111’s geographic footprint, which impacts the district in a number of ways.

The commercial developments add to District 111’s equalized assessed value that is a key driver of each year’s property tax levy, and how the funds are distributed. The residential developments do the same, but also could play into the high school’s enrollment counts.

In his routine report to the school board on Dec. 17, Superintendent Robert Schiffbauer weighed in on some of the developments that are on the docket.

“The two big industrial developments are moving forward,” Schiffbauer said. “The Canadian National intermodal facility has broken ground. The Equinix data center has put up the construction fence around the entire site.”

In his report, Schiffbauer also noted the second phase of Town Center and the Lennar development on Seil Road in Shorewood “is progressing.”

Schiffbauer also discussed the second phase of Neustoneshire, a residential community that has taken root in the Joliet area. Developer D.R. Horton plans to construct 127 new single-family homes in the next phase of the work.

In terms of enrollment projections, Schiffbauer weighed in on the impact Neustoneshire could have on the high school in the future, based on conversations with D.R. Horton representatives.

“They sent us a breakdown, which we really appreciate – that helps,” Schiffbauer said. “I think it was like 30 students at full build-out for our impact.”

But there are other considerations that factor into the equation, including existing enrollment projections at each of the high school district’s three feeders: Minooka Community Consolidated School District 201, Channahon School District 17 and Troy School District 30C.

“We know, in our grade schools, their enrollments are down, especially Minooka [District 201], which is our biggest feeder,” Schiffbauer said. “We look directly at our grade school feeders, and we know exactly what they’re sending up to us.”

Speaking to broader forces at play, Schiffbauer added, “I think what we’re going to see is kind of a backfill, meaning that as we kind of roll certain subdivisions off, they kind of start to age out. These new subdivisions are going to start to backfill those in.”

There are other factors also under review, including students within the area who attend elementary and middle school private and parochial schools. Schiffbauer noted some of those

students follow suit and attend a similar private or parochial school in high school, while others transition to a public one.

Based on preliminary data, Schiffbauer said he anticipates an evening out that will not have an impact on District 111, one way or the other.

“I do think we’re going to run into a point where we start to stay steady at a 2,800- to 2,900-student number, rolling out,” he said.

There also are unknowns in the future, including the possibility of additional residential developments taking root in Minooka, Channahon, Shorewood or any of the other communities within the high school’s boundaries

“[Enrollment projections) could change overnight with a few newer developments,” Schiffbauer said. “As we progress through, we’ll work on a little more substantial projection on that.”