No. 24 Cincinnati takes on South Florida on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. in Cincinnati. The game will be broadcast on ESPN. New Illinois bettors can get in on betting on USF-Cincinnati with a bet on the house up to $1,250 at Caesars Sportsbook when you register here with our promo code.

South Florida vs. Cincinnati odds

The South-Florida-Cincinnati odds pick, from Zach Ewing: Betting spreads this big is always uncomfortable, but this is a total mismatch statistically.

Looking at yards per play, Cincinnati is No. 5 on defense and No. 24 on offense. South Florida is No. 127 on defense — fifth from the bottom — and No. 92 on offense. Drill a little deeper to find that USF allows 5.97 yards per carry, third from last in the country, and UC is No. 3 at 2.39 yards allowed per carry.

That’s the point that makes me more comfortable laying the huge spread. If the Bearcats get out to a big lead, a back-door cover is unlikely because Cincinnati will continue to grind out drives on the ground while South Florida won’t be able to get much going offensively.

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The pick: Cincinnati 48, South Florida 10