Week 7 scoreboard watching: Field slowly starting to take shape but much still to be decided

There are benchmarks that usually start to take shape after six weeks of play.

Usually, somewhere around 50 teams have clinched berths into the playoffs having already achieved their sixth victory. This year’s contenders are slightly behind that clip with just 45 teams secure in their place of the 256-team field.

Each week until the conclusion of the regular season we should add 50 to 75 teams to that list of clinched berths while a much larger group of teams will also get themselves to five-win level.

If you’re of the opinion that five wins is essentially the benchmark for getting into the playoffs (which I am), the six-win plateau becomes an ideal that assures your spot, but barring an extreme circumstance, five wins appears very likely to be all it will take.

We will probably end Week 8 with somewhere around 200 schools with five wins or more, if that number is significantly less than 200, that definitely opens the door to the possible 4-win teams needed to add to the field to reach the 256 team level.

The top teams will have their spots secured in the field quite a bit in advance of the final week of the regular season, but each week until the conclusion of the regular season the space will place a spotlight on the games in each classification that will have a big effect on how the field is ultimately shaped.

First, let’s take a look at a state wide overview of where we stand right now.

Looking at this chart leads to the following observations:

• We started this season with 491 playoff eligible teams.

• If you take out the teams that have both five and six losses you are left with just 385 teams that can even manage to get five wins on the season if everything goes right. And if you consider that the group of teams that have two wins (76) will need to win all three of their remaining games that drops us down to 312 teams with the most reasonable paths to the playoffs.

• There’s 104 teams currently at the .500 mark. To get to five wins, at minimum those teams need to go 2-1 the rest of the way. It’s not even mathematically possible for more than three-quarters of these teams to reach that standard as many play one another and someone has to take the loss.

• And while its not beyond the realm of possibility that 256 teams (or more) in the state of Illinois reach the five win standard, it will take some needle threading to get there.

Each week there’s a list of about 50 games in Illinois that don’t involve teams that will ultimately end up on high seeds but do involve squads that very much need the win in question to keep their playoff hopes alive and/or enhance their chances of locking in a spot.

Here’s a look at how each classification breaks down at this time with a few games that will likely have the biggest effect on how the field is put together.

Class 8A

Projected enrollment range: 2344.5 and up

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 54

Projected schools closest to 8A line (closest to farthest): Conant, Glenbard West, Maine South

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 5

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 12

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 3

Class 8A is typically the easiest to figure out how things will break down as there is no field variance from the bottom changing who might be in the field (There is no Class 9A). So the 32 largest schools that qualify amongst the 256 qualifiers are your 8A qualifiers. That tends to clear up relatively quickly, but that hasn’t been happening as swiftly as usual. That’s largely attributed to the larger number of teams collecting losses and the projections current size standards has only 12 teams that have already reached the five-win mark leaving room for variance.

Games to monitor this week in Class 8A:

• Larkin (3-3) at Bartlett (4-2): The Upstate Eight Conference is muddled in the middle as each school outside of the top three (Glenbard South, Glenbard East and South Elgin) has a befuddling result on its resume. It’s so chaotic that its entire possible that the league might struggle to get teams to the five-win standard they need to get to the field. Bartlett looks best positioned, but has two of the aforementioned schools in the top three in Week 8 and Week 9.

• Oswego East (4-2) at Yorkville (5-1): Is Yorkville likely in the field already? Almost certainly. But the Foxes still want to keep themselves in position for a solid seed. Oswego East’s situation is a bit more perilous, closing the season with crosstown rival Oswego and a currently undefeated Plainfield North squad in Week 9.

• Bolingbrook (4-2) at Lockport (4-2): Bolingbrook’s rigorous schedule softens at the end of the year so the Raiders look OK regardless of the outcome here, but the defending Class 8A state champion is considerably more troublesome. The Porters have Lincoln-Way East in Week 8 and then play a Week 9 game with Andrew that if the Porters fall here could be a win and get in scenario for both teams.

Class 7A

Projected enrollment range: 1859.5 to 2326.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 53

Projected schools closest to 8A line (closest to farthest): Edwardsville, Plainfield North, Glenbard East

Projected schools closest to 6A line (closest to farthest): Geneva, Collinsville, Yorkville

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 3

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 12

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 3

It is a relatively small group of both undefeated and winless teams in the group projected to make up the Class 7A field. What does that ultimately mean? There’s a lot that still needs to be sorted out in this classification over the last three weeks. There also seems to be a large group of teams that are either going to find themselves just to the right side of the .500 mark or just to the wrong side of it in Class 7A.

Games to monitor this week in Class 7A:

• Andrew (4-2) at Bradley-Bourbonnais (3-3): Based on what remains on each team’s schedule there’s likely only a playoff slot available for the team that wins this game. Otherwise, it will require an upset (or possibly two) for either of these two teams to still get into the field.

• Plainfield South (3-3) at Plainfield Central (3-3): No one has taken control of the Southwest Prairie East Conference. In fact, these are the only two teams that stand at the .500 mark in the conference. There’s probably room for both of these teams provided they take care of business after Week 7, but the winner here has an extremely good chance of claiming the conference’s automatic bid.

• Hinsdale South (2-4) at Willowbrook (3-3): Hinsdale South has painted itself into the proverbial corner with four losses, but running the table doesn’t look completely implausible. This is the biggest challenge of the three remaining games though as Willowbrook can’t really afford to take the loss here with York looming on the schedule in Week 8.

Class 6A

Projected enrollment range: 1356 to 1832

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 56

Projected schools closest to 7A line (closest to farthest): Libertyville, Guilford, DeKalb

Projected schools closest to 5A line (closest to farthest): Centennial, Washington, Wauconda

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 5

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 12

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 4

This is the class with the most substantial projected enrollment gap from top to bottom. That leads to some interesting scenarios in regards to who will meet the five-win standard and also always leads to geographic dissection as to who gets placed in the north or south brackets with dynamic East St. Louis certain to reside on the south side of the bracket.

Games to monitor this week in Class 6A

• Lake Forest (2-4) at Lake Zurich (5-1): Lake Forest has been a playoff staple for a few years but there’s no doubt that the Scouts have their backs against the wall here. If they somehow manage to get past Lake Zurich their reward is a Week 8 game with Warren that will also be a must-win scenario.

• Maine West (3-3) at Deerfield (3-3): Deerfield once again is making its case that its the team to beat in the Central Suburban North, but very quietly Maine West is putting together one of its better seasons in recent memory and have comfortably won each of its league games to start the season.

• Argo (4-2) at Blue Island Eisenhower (4-2): The South Suburban Red Conference is easily one of the most difficult conferences in the state to get a handle on. Richards has a leg up in the league race, but as many as five teams are jostling for position from basically the same starting spot as they start Week 7. Eisenhower has played a significantly stronger schedule than Argo has to get to the same record as the Argonauts have one of the smallest playoff point totals in the state.

Class 5A

Projected enrollment range: 975 to 1347

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 52

Projected schools closest to 6A line (closest to farthest): Grayslake Central, Prairie Ridge, Simeon

Projected schools closest to 4A line (closest to farthest): Noble/Pritzker, Sterling, Noble/ITW Speer

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 4

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 12

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 7

Class 5A has earned a reputation over the past few years as being home to the unpredictable and figuring out the field this year is living up to that. FIeld pressures both on the top and bottom of the enrollment chart have led to some teams you are accustomed to seeing in this field sliding down to Class 4A and others entering to fill those vacancies that are considered 6A schools.

Games to monitor this week in Class 5A

• Fenwick (3-3) at St. Patrick (4-2): Fenwick is in a bit of an odd predicament heading into this game. A win would be mammoth for the Friars as they will be receiving a forfeit win in Week 8 that coupled with a win in Week 7 would get them to the five win plateau. Fenwick would certainly like to get to the five-win group early rather than put all its chips on the table in a Week 9 game with St. Ignatius. Adding pressure to the scenario is that forfeit win plus a win over 1-win Thornwood team leaves Fenwick with considerably fewer playoff points than the rest of their CCL/ESCC brethren.

• LaSalle-Peru (4-2) at Ottawa (4-2): LaSalle-Peru has put together a workmen like season and have reached this point about where it was expected to, Ottawa on the other hand has exceeded expectations. The Pirates haven’t been to the playoffs since 2012 and a win here would basically secure that fate for them. A challenging Week 8 game with Morris makes this one somewhat pivotal for Ottawa or would leave it all in the hands of a Week 9 game with Woodstock. LaSalle-Peru’s end of the schedule isn’t a cakewalk either with Sycamore and Kaneland looming which adds extra incentive for the Cavaliers to lock in playoff eligibility sooner rather than later.

• Dunlap (4-2) at Washington (3-3): Both of these teams usually find themselves in the thick of the Mid-Illini race, but Pekin has broken away from the field a bit this season. Dunlap should be OK win or lose here, but it is Washington that can really help its stock considerably and potentially avoid a very low seed in the draw with a win.

Class 4A

Projected enrollment range: 613.5 to 974.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 72

Projected schools closest to 5A line (closest to farthest): Metamora, Mahomet-Seymour, Jacksonville

Projected schools closest to 3A line (closest to farthest): Breese Central, Richmond-Burton, Columbia

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 5

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 17

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 5

The biggest story in 4A is who will actually make the 32-team field. Several 4A strongholds (Sacred Heart Griffin, Richmond-Burton and Breese Central) are all flirting with placement in 3A. Joliet Catholic’s little used piece of the “playing up” protocol will insure they will stay in 4A rather than potentially slide down to 3A. Of the projected teams currently slated to end up in 4A a whopping 17 of them are already playoff eligible which means this field will likely pretty much take shape quickly with only the final enrollment breaks playing a factor in possible changing the look of the field.

Games to monitor this week in Class 4A:

• Phillips (3-3) vs. Lane (6-0): A brutal nonconference schedule that featured Mt. Carmel and Batavia has suddenly put Phillips firmly on bubble watch. A win over upstart Lane is almost a must, unless the Wildcats can figure out a win to topple Kenwood in Week 9.

• Olney East Richland (4-2) vs. Robinson (4-2): Behind Mount Carmel (the downstate one), the Little Illini has been nearly impossible to figure out in the middle of the pack. This game should provide some needed clarity as well as likely lock in a playoff berth for the winner.

• St. Ignatius (4-2) vs. St. Viator (4-2): One would think St. Viator would be trending OK with a 4-2 mark at this point, but the Lions close their season with three schools that have a combined 16-4 record including a Week 8 matchup with Mount Carmel. St. Ignatius’ schedule is no picnic either, but the path has a few less potholes to deal with.

Class 3A

Projected enrollment range: 449.5 to 607

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 56

Projected schools closest to 4A line (closest to farthest): Sacred Heart Griffin, Macomb, Johnsburg

Projected schools closest to 2A line (closest to farthest): St. Joseph Ogden, Winnebago, Byron

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 9

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 16

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 2

This is another projected field that has a lot of teams already fairly secure in their postseason fate. A whopping nine undefeated teams are in this group including a pair of teams in Macomb and Sacred Heart Griffin who are right on the brink of possibly being returned to Class 4A.

Games to monitor this week in Class 3A

• Clark (3-3) vs. Taft (1-5): Clark hasn’t been able to maintain the momentum that allowed them to advance into the second round of the 3A playoffs last year. By record it looks like Taft should be a winnable game for them, but considering the fact that Taft’s lone win came over a team (Westinghouse) that beat Clark that’s not a slam dunk.

• Harrisburg (4-2) at Murphysboro (5-1): Although Harrisburg is just one win from playoff eligibility, it has such a tricky second half of its schedule to survive. Murphysboro still has its eyes on a conference championship and a high seed so a misstep here would be costly to them as well.

• Kewanee (2-4) at Mendota (3-3): There’s been a lot of close games in the Three Rivers Conference this season and there’s also quite a few teams that are teetering on the brink of being ousted from being in the mix for a playoff slot. Kewanee needs it more than Mendota does, but the road isn’t exactly completely clear for them either.

Class 2A

Projected enrollment range: 326 to 445.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 66

Projected schools closest to 3A line (closest to farthest): Beardstown, Durand-Pecatonica, Seneca.

Projected schools closest to 1A line (closest to farthest): Arthur/Belleville Althoff (Same enrollment, coin flip would break tie if needed), Clifton Central.

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 7

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 16

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 8

There’s already 16 teams in the Class 2A projected draw that have earned playoff eligibility, which makes for some interesting jostling among the teams that have yet to achieve that status. In the end, it likely means that 2A might be one of the only fields where teams with two losses are unlikely to have an opportunity to host an opening round playoff game.

Games to monitor this week in Class 2A:

• Sterling Newman Central Catholic (3-3) vs. Spring Valley Hall (3-3): A game between a pair of .500 teams where neither can afford to slide underneath that standard. Hall definitely has a bigger problem lurking though as currently undefeated St. Bede is its Week 8 opponent. If Hall does manage to get to playoff eligibility a cooperative agreement with Putnam County would push the Red Devils into the Class 4A draw.

• Illini West (3-3) vs. Knoxville (4-2): A late-season crossover matchup has heavily implications for both teams. Illini West’s situation is complicated by the fact that they still have to deal with a matchup with currently undefeated Macomb.

• Elmwood (4-2) at Farmington (4-2): This is a game more about seed positioning than concern about whether or not either makes the field. But in a Class 2A field that looks like it may be the only one loaded with undefeated and one-loss teams neither of these squads can afford too many losses if they want to avoid a very low seed.

Class 1A

Projected enrollment range: Up to 321.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 74

Projected schools closest to 2A line (closest to farthest): Bloomington Central Catholic, Shelbyville, Athens

Schools in that range that have already clinched playoff berths: 7

Schools in that range that are playoff eligible (including clinched berths): 13

Schools in that range that already have six losses: 8

Class 1A has the largest number of schools that factor into the projected group of teams that would likely land there for playoff consideration. That means there are considerably more teams in this class than any other that have struggled, and will likely continue to struggle, to pile up victories. As such, the enrollment cutoff line is pushing to almost an all-time high.

Games to monitor this week in Class 1A:

• Galena (3-3) at Dakota (3-3): The slow contraction of Northwest Upstate Illini Conference’s membership to 8-man football has now lead to this league having a number of teams that used to ease into the playoffs now having to scrap to find a slot. Dakota’s lost to Eastland-Pearl City could prove costly and Galena’s only safe path to a playoff berth is linked to them getting a win here.

• Dupo (3-3) at Chester (2-4): Dupo hasn’t finished above .500 or qualified for the playoffs since 2012 and while they still haven’t beat a team with a winning record a soft schedule still gives them a path to get in. A very difficult nonconference schedule dug Chester a hole it has had trouble getting out of and this win is a must to keep those hopes alive.

• Deer Creek-Mackinaw (2-4) at LeRoy (3-3): An astonishingly difficult schedule for Deer-Creek Mackinaw to start the season led them to get out of the gates at 0-4. They also close the season with an undefeated Eureka team in Week 9. And while that might look like all is lost for them, if four-win teams are needed to fill the field, Deer Creek-Mackinaw might be the only small school program in the state with the resume to earn one of those slots if they exist. All that being said, LeRoy needs this win just as bad with undefeated Ridgeview lurking in Week 9.