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A large percentage of the playoff field repeats itself on a year-to-year basis, but recent seasons have led to more variability in the 256-team field.
That trend only became more noticeable last season.
For the first time in over a decade, the percentage of teams that repeated playoff appearances dipped below 75 percent as 189 of the teams from the last year’s playoff field also qualified the previous year (73.82 percent).
One thing has remained fairly constant throughout: the teams that find themselves at or near the top of each classification remains extremely consistent.
For years, I’ve used what I call a three-year win model to project what the field will look like come October, as well as to try to identify where the classifications breaks will fall. It isn’t a precise science, especially with the percentage of repeat teams continuing to fall, but it does provide a pretty fair estimation of where classification breaks will fall.
Although the model didn’t do a fantastic job of predicting the makeup of last season’s field, it did do a very solid job of projecting the classification breaks. And, with some dramatic changes in enrollment to several prominent schools, finding where the classification breaks land will have a significant impact on how each of the eight classes will be shaped.
The model forecasts the 256 teams most likely to reach the postseason based on the performance of the past three full seasons. No forecasting of the upcoming season is applied to this projection. Don’t worry, those will come soon after opening night.
Here’s where the model has the classification breaks landing:
| Class | Projected Enrollment Range |
|---|---|
| Class 1A | up to 303 |
| Class 2A | 304-408 |
| Class 3A | 409-547.5 |
| Class 4A | 548-892 |
| Class 5A | 893-1290.5 |
| Class 6A | 1291-1802 |
| Class 7A | 1803-2307 |
| Class 8A | 2308 and up |
After establishing the 256-team field, one can put together prospective brackets based on the previous success levels of those programs.
Here are the most successful programs inside the three-year model and which classifications those schools are expected to land in:
| Team | Total Wins | Projected Class |
|---|---|---|
| Lena-Winslow | 40 | 1A |
| St. Teresa | 37 | 2A |
| Byron | 37 | 3A |
| Richmond-Burton | 37 | 4A |
| East St. Louis | 37 | 6A* |
| Williamsville | 36 | 3A |
| Mount Carmel | 36 | 7A |
| Lincoln-Way East | 36 | 8A |
| Rochester | 35 | 5A |
| IC Catholic | 34 | 4A |
| Sacred Heart Griffin | 34 | 5A |
| Wilmington | 33 | 3A |
| Tolono Unity | 33 | 3A |
| Prairie Ridge | 33 | 5A |
| Loyola | 33 | 8A |
Here’s a class-by-class breakdown of what looks interesting by using the projected classification break lines:
Class 1A
Enrollment range: Up to 303
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Arthur, Watseka, Carlyle, Deer Creek-Mackinaw, Oakwood.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Bloomington Central Catholic, Iroquois West, Rockford Christian, Noble Street/DRW Trading, Momence.
One interesting development is the likely addition of Sterling Newman Central Catholic. The multiplier was removed for the Comets and if they make the field as they have every season since 2000, they will be a part of the Class 1A field for the first time since 1998.
Clifton Central is another program where its enrollment shift seems to almost guarantee a qualifying spot in the 1A field. Central has made 27 of the last 31 playoff fields and none of those games have ever been played in the 1A field.
If Belleville Althoff can navigate a minefield of significantly larger schools on its schedule and get to the qualifying standard, the nonmultiplied Crusaders could be extremely dangerous in the 1A field.
Class 2A
Enrollment range: 304 to 408
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Arthur, Watseka, Carlyle, Deer Creek-Mackinaw, Oakwood.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Bloomington Central Catholic, Iroquois West, Rockford Christian, Noble Street/DRW Trading, Momence.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Lisle, Nashville, Winnebago, Dwight, Pleasant Plains.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Wilmington, Carlinville, Paxton-Buckley-Loda, Crane, Oregon.
A couple of interesting potential adds to this mix are Quincy Notre Dame, which is no longer multiplied, and Marian Central, which has joined a conference (Chicagoland Christian) more befitting a school of its enrollment. The Hurricanes also have one of the state’s best in the Class of 2024 in Clemson-bound tight end Christian Bentancur.
But, the most interesting thing about 2A could be where the bubble breaks on the high side of this class. Nashville is just under the wire and projected to remain in Class 2A, while Wilmington, the 2021 Class 2A champions, is projected to be the smallest school in the Class 3A field.
Class 3A
Enrollment range: 409 to 547.5
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Lisle, Nashville, Winnebago, Dwight, Pleasant Plains.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Wilmington, Carlinville, Paxton, Crane, Oregon.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Phillips, Noble Street/Academy, Catalyst/Maria, King, Greenville.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Clark, Harrisburg, Dyett, Staunton, Phoenix Military.
The most obvious difference in Class 3A will be the absence of the defending state champions.
IC Catholic wasn’t multiplied last season and elected to “play up” into Class 3A as its natural enrollment would have placed it in Class 2A. The multiplier, however, has been put back on the Knights, which will push them up into the Class 4A field.
As mentioned in the Class 2A breakdown, Wilmington’s ultimate landing spot is of interest here as well. Currently projected as the smallest Class 3A school, if the Wildcats landed in 3A again, it would again reinforce the strength of the north side of the bracket, which has been power-packed in recent campaigns.
Class 4A
Enrollment range: 548 to 892
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Phillips, Noble Street/Academy, Catalyst/Maria, King, Greenville.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Clark, Harrisburg, Dyett, Staunton, Phoenix Military.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Brooks, Marian Catholic, Jacksonville, Limestone, Evergreen Park.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Highland, Metamora, Mattoon, Woodstock North, Carbondale.
The Class 4A field is likely the one that will see the most change. Both of the teams in last year’s state championship games, Sacred Heart Griffin and Providence, will find themselves in different classes. Sacred Heart Griffin is now multiplied and is also subjected to the success formula and will play in the Class 5A postseason, while Providence also regained its multiplier and could potentially jump up all the way to 6A.
They aren’t the only notable teams leaving the Class 4A ranks either. Both Joliet Catholic and Wheaton St. Francis now face the multiplier after not having done so the previous two years. Both are headed to 5A.
With so many defections from prominent programs, it will mean a shift down with many teams one usually expects to be in a higher classification. Rochester’s typical dance between 4A and 5A appears to be over as the Rockets look firmly in Class 4A. Rockford Boylan, now not multiplied, adds a potential strong team to the 4A north field, while Morris, which has also seemed to ride the 4A/5A bubble in recent years, looks much more inclined to end up in 4A than ever before.
Class 5A
Enrollment range: 893 to 1290.5
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Evergreen Park, Limestone, Jacksonville, Marian Catholic, Brooks.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Highland, Metamora, Mattoon, Woodstock North, Carbondale.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Antioch, Grayslake North, Burlington Central, Lakes, T.F. North.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Providence, Danville, Hinsdale South, Kaneland, Grayslake Central.
The makeup of Class 5A is also set to take on a number of substantial changes.
Defending champion Nazareth looks relatively loaded, but the teams that will likely be in the Roadrunners path’ should be much different.
Sacred Heart Griffin is now guaranteed to be in Class 5A because of the success formula, while Class 6A runner-up Prairie Ridge experienced a substantial drop in natural enrollment and now looks virtually assured of being in Class 5A.
Joliet Catholic, St. Francis and possibly Providence (which currently resides on the 5A/6A bubble line) could all be added to a mix as well.
By natural enrollment, East St. Louis would also be slated to be placed in Class 5A. But, although the Flyers have not had it officially approved as of yet, they intend to “play up” in Class 6A for another two-year stint.
Class 6A
Enrollment range: 1291-1802
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Antioch, Grayslake North, Burlington Central, Lakes, T.F. North.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Providence, Danville, Hinsdale South, Kaneland, Grayslake Central.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Shepard, Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich, Blue Island Eisenhower.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Granite City, Oak Lawn Community, Rockford Auburn, Pekin, Wheaton Warrenville South.
There’s some interesting information that comes out the prospective Class 6A draw.
East St. Louis’ official confirmation that it will play up is the first step in getting a true overview of the class, but some new teams should enter this mix. Others that have become customary 6A teams are likely going into different classifications.
Possibly the oddest of those changes refers to St. Rita. The Mustangs remain multiplied, but a drop in the school’s natural enrollment was the precipice for its multiplied enrollment dropping by over 300. That moved the Mustangs 37 spots on the list of schools when ordered by enrollment.
Those 37 spots will almost certainly mean the difference between the Mustangs being in Class 7A, where they have been the past two seasons, and moving down to 6A.
A downward enrollment shift also likely moves Prairie Ridge, a consistent Class 6A team, down into the Class 5A field. Prairie Ridge has been a 6A entrant every year it has made the playoffs since 2000.
Kankakee will also likely be making a change for the opposite reason. A substantial enrollment jump has pushed the Kays into the Class 6A mix.
Class 7A
Enrollment range: 1803-2307
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Shepard, Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich, Blue Island Eisenhower.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Granite City, Oak Lawn Community, Rockford Auburn, Pekin, Wheaton Warrenville South.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Edwardsville, Proviso West, Glenbard East, Andrew, Round Lake.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Plainfield South, Bartlett, Maine South.
There’s very little potential movement in Class 7A.
The real intrigue comes with where the class breaks on the bottom of the classification. There’s notable teams like Edwardsville and Glenbard East trending toward being the larger schools in 7A, while the smallest schools in 8A are currently settling on some programs (Glenbard West, Maine South and Plainfield North) that will likely make noise in whichever class they land.
Class 8A
Enrollment range: 2308 and up
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Edwardsville, Proviso West, Glenbard East, Andrew, Round Lake.
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Plainfield South, Bartlett, Maine South.
This is the class that traditionally sees the smallest amount of change, and there’s not much to dissuade one from believing that will be the case again this year.
St. Ignatius is the only program that saw a substantial increase in its previous enrollment. That will shift it into the Class 8A field. St. Ignatius was a semifinalist in Class 6A last season, but that success insured the Wolfpack would face the multiplier in future seasons, which boosted its enrollment above 2,400 and virtually guarantees that it will be a 8A playoff qualifier if the Wolfpack make the field.
Elsewhere, the intrigue with 8A always is where the break line between 7A and 8A lands. Programs like Edwardsville, Glenbard West, Plainfield North and Maine South are like almost always, hovering right on the line between the two classifications.